Ebix (EBIXQ) Predictability Rank

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What is Ebix Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ebix Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Ebix (EBIXQ) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Ebix Inc (OTCPK:EBIXQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

EWZ:Germany

Address

1 Ebix Way, Johns Creek, GA, USA, 30097

Website

https://www.ebix.com

Ebix Inc is a provider of enterprise cloud e-commerce solutions for the insurance, finance, and healthcare industries. The company derives its revenues primarily from its financial transaction fees, software subscription, and transaction fees, software license fees, risk compliance solutions services fees, and professional service fees, including associated fees for consulting, implementation, training, and project management provided to customers with installed systems and applications. These exchanges connect multiple entities within the insurance and healthcare markets, enabling participants to carry and process data from one entity to another. Ebix generates the majority of its revenue from India.

Executives

Elizabeth A. Lapuma	director	520 LAKE COOK ROAD, SUITE 315, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Jill M Krueger	director
Priyanka Kaul	director	1 EBIX WAY, JOHNS CREEK GA 30097
Senge James Scott Sr	officer: Senior Vice President	1629 SEEGAR ROAD, PITTSBURGH PA 15241
Neil D Eckert	director	62 BISHOPSGATE, LONDON X0 EC2N 4AW
Steven M Hamil	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1 EBIX WAY, JOHNS CREEK GA 30097
Robin Raina	director, officer: Chairman & CEO	5 CONCOURSE PARKWAY S 3200, ATLANTA GA 30328
Pavan Bhalla	director	1109 BRECKENRIDGE LANE, ALPHARETTA GA 30005
Hans Ueli Keller	director	BOHLSTRASSE 25, 6300, ZUG V8 6300
Rolf Herter	director	STOCKERSTRASSE 38, ZURICH V8 CH-8002
Hans U Benz	director	AGERISTRASSE 24, ZUG V8 CH-6300
George Hebard	director	C/O ICAHN CAPITAL LP, 767 FIFTH AVE., SUITE 4700, NEW YORK NY 10153
Robert F Kerris	officer: Chief Financial Officer	2840 TALIMORE COURT, MARIETTA GA 30066
Fondation Rennes	10 percent owner	RATIKONSTRASSE 13, VADUZ, PRINCIPALITY OF LIECHTENSTEIN N2 FL-9490
D'apice Leon Royden Thomas	officer: See Remarks	1 URALBA PLACE, WAHROONGA NSW C3 2076