Educational Development Predictability Rank Definition
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Educational Development Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Educational Development (Educational Development) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
5402 South 122nd East Avenue, Tulsa, OK, USA, 74146
Educational Development Corp is the United States trade publisher of the line of educational children's books produced in the United Kingdom. Its business activity functions with two reportable segments: Direct Sales Division segment and Publishing Division segment. The Publishing Division segment markets its products to retail accounts, which include the book, school supplies, toy and gift stores and museums, through commissioned sales representatives, trade and specialty wholesalers and an internal telesales group. The Direct Sales Division segment sells their books and products through independent brand partners direct to the customer. It derives a majority of revenue from the Direct sales division segment.
Executives
| O Keefe Daniel E |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
1221 E HOUSTON, BROKEN ARROW OK 74012 |
| Heather N. Cobb |
officer: Chief Sales & Marketing Offcr |
5402 S. 122ND ST. EAST AVE., TULSA OK 74137 |
| Craig M White |
officer: VP, Operations |
10302 E 55TH PL, TULSA OK 74146 |
| Bradely Von Stoots |
director |
5402 S. 122ND EAST AVE, TULSA OK 74146 |
| Randall W White |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: President & CEO |
|
| Joshua J Peters |
director |
5402 S. 122ND EAST AVE, TULSA OK 74146 |
| Ronald T Mcdaniel |
officer: Vice President |
|
| Besty Richert |
director |
5402 S. 122ND EAST AVE, TULSA OK 74146 |
| Kara Gae Neal |
director |
5402 S. 122ND EAST AVE, TULSA OK 74146 |
| James F Lewis |
director |
|
| G Dean Cosgrove |
director |
|
| William C Fossett |
officer: Controller & Corporate Secreta |
|
| John A Clerico |
director |
3132 S COLUMBIA CIRCLE, TULSA OK 74105 |
| Robert D Berryhill |
director |
PO BOX 1120, BIXBY OK 74008 |
| Kathy Slemp |
officer: Vice President |
|
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