eHealth (eHealth) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

eHealth Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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eHealth (eHealth) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » eHealth Inc (NAS:EHTH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

M5V:Germany M5V:Germany

Address

2625 Augustine Drive, Suite 150, Santa Clara, CA, USA, 95054

Website

https://www.ehealthinsurance.com

eHealth Inc offers a private health insurance exchange where individuals and small businesses can compare health insurance products from leading insurers. Users can purchase the insurance online. The exchange includes Medicare options, and seniors can enroll in those plans online or via phone. The company primarily generates revenue through commissions it receives from health insurance carriers. EHealth has relationships with the health insurance carriers in the United States and offers thousands of plans online. All of the company's revenue is from the United States.

Executives

Dale B Wolf	director
Gavin G. Galimi	officer: SVP, General Counsel & Secr.	2625 AUGUSTINE DRIVE, SECOND FLOOR, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Soistman Francis S Jr	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	3721 RECPORT DRIVE, HARRISBURG PA 17106
John J Stelben	officer: SVP, Chief Financial Officer	6705 ROCKLEDGE DR, SUITE 900, BETHESDA MD 21710
John Joseph Dolan	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O EHEALTH, INC., 2625 AUGUSTINE DRIVE, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Phillip A Morelock	officer: Chief Digital Officer	C/O EHEALTH, INC., 2625 AUGUSTINE DRIVE, SECOND FLOOR, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Roman V Rariy	officer: COO & Chief Transformation Off	C/O EHEALTH, INC., 2625 AUGUSTINE DRIVE, SECOND FLOOR, SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Erin L Russell	director	245 PARK AVENUE, 41ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10167
Timothy C. Hannan	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	C/O EHEALTH INC., 440 EAST MIDDLEFIELD ROAD, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
A John Hass	director	ROSETTA STONE, 1621 NORTH KENT STREET, SUITE 1200, ARLINGTON VA 22209
Christine A Janofsky	officer: SVP, Chief Financial Officer	150 N RADNOR CHESTER ROAD, RADNOR PA 19087
H.i.g. Middle Market Lbo Fund Iii, L.p.	10 percent owner	1450 BRICKELL AVENUE, 31ST FLOOR, MIAMI FL 33131
H.i.g. Middle Market Advisors Iii, Llc	10 percent owner	C/O H.I.G. CAPITAL, LLC, 1450 BRICKELL AVENUE, 31ST FLOOR, MIAMI FL 33131
Echelon Health Spv, Lp	10 percent owner	C/O H.I.G. CAPITAL, LLC, 1450 BRICKELL AVENUE, 31ST FLOOR, MIAMI FL 33131
Echelon Health Spv Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	C/O H.I.G. CAPITAL, LLC, 1450 BRICKELL AVENUE, 31ST FLOOR, MIAMI FL 33131