Equity Residential (Equity Residential) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1993. Start your Free Trial

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Equity Residential Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Equity Residential Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Equity Residential's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Equity Residential (Equity Residential) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Equity Residential (NYSE:EQR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

EQR:Germany E1QR34:Brazil

Address

Two North Riverside Plaza, Chicago, IL, USA, 60606

Website

https://www.equityapartments.com

Equity Residential owns a portfolio of 304 apartment communities with around 80,000 units and is developing two additional properties with 537 units. The company focuses on owning large, high-quality properties in the urban and suburban submarkets of Southern California, San Francisco, Washington, D.C., New York, Seattle, and Boston.

Executives

David J Neithercut	director	C/O EQUITY RESIDENTIAL, TWO NORTH RIVERSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 400, CHICAGO IL 60606
Michael L Manelis	officer: Executive Vice President	TWO NORTH RIVERSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 400, CHICAGO IL 60606
Mark S Shapiro	director	C/O RED ZONE LLC, 21300 REDSKIN PARK DRIVE, ASHBURN VA 20147
Mary Kay Haben	director	C/O EQUITY RESIDENTIAL, TWO NORTH RIVERSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 400, CHICAGO IL 60606
Catherine Carraway	officer: Executive Vice President	TWO NORTH RIVERSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 500, CHICAGO IL 60606
Alexander Brackenridge	officer: Executive Vice President	TWO NORTH RIVERSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 400, CHICAGO IL 60606
Ian Kaufman	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O EQUITY RESIDENTIAL, TWO NORTH RIVERSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 400, CHICAGO IL 60606
Scott Fenster	officer: EVP & General Counsel	TWO NORTH RIVERSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 400, CHICAGO IL 60606
Robert Garechana	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	TWO NORTH RIVERSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 400, CHICAGO IL 60606
Christa L Sorenson	officer: Executive Vice President	TWO NORTH RIVERSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 400, CHICAGO IL 60606
Linda Bynoe	director	980 N. MICHIGAN AVE, SUITE 1400, CHICAGO IL 60611
Angela M Aman	director	RETAIL PROPERTIES OF AMERICA, INC., 2021 SPRING ROAD, SUITE 200, OAK BROOK IL 60523
Raymond Bennett	director	TWO NORTH RIVERSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 400, CHICAGO IL 60606
Stephen E Sterrett	director	115 W WASHINGTON ST, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46204
Bradley A Keywell	director