ESSA Bancorp (ESSA Bancorp) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2007. Start your Free Trial

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

ESSA Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

ESSA Bancorp Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of ESSA Bancorp's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

ESSA Bancorp (ESSA Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » ESSA Bancorp Inc (NAS:ESSA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

200 Palmer Street, Stroudsburg, PA, USA, 18360

Website

https://www.essabank.com

ESSA Bancorp Inc is a holding company, engaged in accepting deposits from the general public and investing those deposits, together with funds generated from operations and borrowings, in residential first mortgage loans (including construction mortgage loans), commercial real estate loans, home equity loans and lines of credit and commercial and industrial loans. The company offers a variety of deposit accounts, including checking, savings and certificates of deposit. The company also offers asset management and trust services and investment services. The company also offers insurance benefit consulting services through its wholly-owned subsidiary, ESSA Advisory Services, LLC.

Executives

Carolyn Stennett	director	200 PALMER STREET, STROUDSBURG PA 18360
Tina Q Richardson	director	200 PALMER STREET, STROUDSBURG PA 18360
Peter A Gray	officer: Dir. of Strategic Initiatives	200 PALMER STREET, STROUDSBURG PA 18360
Selig Robert C Jr	director	200 PALMER STREET, STROUDSBURG PA 18360
Thomas J Grayuski	officer: Vice President	200 PALMER STREET, STROUDSBURG PA 18360
Gary S Olson	director, officer: President and CEO	200 PALMER STREET, STROUDSBURG PA 18360
Charles Hangen	officer: SVP and CLO	200 PALMER STREET, STROUDSBURG PA 18360
Christine Davis Gordon	director	200 PALMER STREET, STROUDSBURG PA 18360
Elizabeth B Weekes	director	200 PALMER STREET, STROUDSBURG PA 18360
Robert L Selitto	officer: Vice President	200 PALMER STREET, STROUDSBURG PA 18360
Daniel J Henning	director	200 PALMER STREET, STROUDSBURG PA 18360
Diane K Reimer	officer: Vice President	200 PALMER STREET, STROUDSBURG PA 18360
Allan A Muto	officer: Executive Vice President & CFO	200 PALMER STREET, STROUDSBURG PA 18360
Joseph S Durkin	director	200 PALMER STREET, STROUDSBURG PA 18360
William A Viechnicki	director	200 PALMER STREET, STROUDSBURG PA 18360