ExlService Holdings (ExlService Holdings) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

ExlService Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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ExlService Holdings (ExlService Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » ExlService Holdings Inc (NAS:EXLS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

LHV:Germany

Address

320 Park Avenue, 29th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10022

Website

https://www.exlservice.com

ExlService Holdings Inc. is a business process management company that provides digital operations and analytical services to clients driving enterprise-scale business transformation initiatives that leverage company's deep expertise in analytics, AI, ML and cloud. The company offers business process outsourcing and automation services, and data-driven insights to customers in multiple industries. The company operates through four segments based on the products and services offered and markets served: Insurance, Healthcare, Emerging, Analytics. The vast majority of the company's revenue is earned in the United States, and more than half of its revenue comes from Analytics segment.

Executives

Vikas Bhalla	officer: VP, Operations of EXL India	C/O EXLSERVICE HOLDINGS, INC., 320 PARK AVENUE 29TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10022
Sarah K Williamson	director	55 EAST 52ND STREET, C/O EVERCORE INC., NEW YORK NY 10055
Pamela M Harrison	officer: CHIEF HUMAN RESOURCES OFFICER	6620 WEST BROAD STREET, RICHMOND VA 23230
Anne Elizabeth Minto	director	C/O EXLSERVICE HOLDINGS, INC., 320 PARK AVENUE 29TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10022
Clyde W Ostler	director
Maurizio Nicolelli	officer: Executive Vice President & CFO	C/O CASA SYSTEMS, 100 OLD RIVER ROAD, SUITE 100, ANDOVER MA 01810
Andreas Fibig	director	INTERNATIONAL FLAVORS & FRAGRANCES INC., 521 WEST 57TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Ajay Ayyappan	officer: SVP & Gen Counsel/Corp. Sec'y.	320 PARK AVENUE, 29TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10022
Nalin Kumar Miglani	officer: VP and Chief HR Officer	C/O EXLSERVICE HOLDINGS INC, 320 PARK AVENUE 29TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10022
Garen K Staglin	director	C/O EXLSERVICE HOLDINGS, INC., 320 PARK AVENUE 29TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10022
Anita Mahon	officer: See Remarks	320 PARK AVENUE, 29TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Narasimha Kini	officer: VP, Advis. Serv. of EXL India	C/O EXLSERVICE HOLDINGS, INC., 350 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Rohit Kapoor	director, officer: President and CFO	C/O EXLSERVICE HOLDINGS, INC., 320 PARK AVENUE 29TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10022
Ankor Rai	officer: EVP, Chief Digital Officer	320 PARK AVENUE, 29TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Jaynie M Studenmund	director	506 SECOND AVENUE, 9TH FLOOR, SEATTLE WA 98104