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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
First American Financial Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
First American Financial (First American Financial) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1 First American Way, Santa Ana, CA, USA, 92707-5913
First American Financial Corp is a financial services business providing insurance through two segments: title insurance and related services and specialty insurance. Title insurance and related services include real estate insurance, property closing services, third-party handling of real estate funds (escrow), risk mitigation, real estate data products, and related real estate transaction services. The title insurance sector serves residential and commercial deals. Specialty insurance includes property insurance policies, casualty insurance policies, and home warranties. Nearly all the company's revenue comes from the title insurance and related services segment in the United States.
Executives
| Steven A Adams |
officer: VP & Chief Accounting Officer |
2260 E IMPERIAL HIGHWAY, EL SEGUNDO X1 90245 |
| Christopher Michael Leavell |
officer: COO of Subsidiary |
1 FIRST AMERICAN WAY, SANTA ANA CA 92707 |
| Marsha A Spence |
director |
1 FIRST AMERICAN WAY, SANTA ANA CA 92707 |
| Kenneth D Degiorgio |
director, officer: Executive Vice President |
|
| Lisa W Cornehl |
officer: SVP, Chief Legal Officer |
1 FIRST AMERICAN WAY, SANTA ANA CA 92886 |
| Jean C Latorre |
director |
1 FIRST AMERICAN WAY, SANTA ANA CA 92707 |
| Mark C Oman |
director |
ONE HOME CAMPUS X2401-06X, DES MOINES IA 50328 |
| Mark Edward Seaton |
officer: Senior Vice President |
1 FIRST AMERICAN WAY, SANTA ANA CA 92707 |
| Matthew F. Wajner |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
1 FIRST AMERICAN WAY, SANTA ANA CA 92707 |
| Martha B Wyrsch |
director |
|
| Dennis J Gilmore |
officer: Chief Executive Officer |
1 FIRST AMERICAN WAY, SANTA ANA CA 92707 |
| Reginald Harold Gilyard |
director |
1 FIRST AMERICAN WAY, SANTA ANA CA 92707 |
| Parker S Kennedy |
director, officer: Executive Chairman |
114 EAST FIFTH STREET, SANTA ANA CA 92701 |
| James L Doti |
director |
|
| Margaret M Mccarthy |
director |
AETNA INC., 151 FARMINGTON AVENUE, HARTFORD CT 06156 |
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