Fastenal Co (Fastenal Co) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Fastenal Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Fastenal Co (Fastenal Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Distribution » Fastenal Co (NAS:FAST) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

FAS:Germany FAS:Germany FAS:Germany FASL34:Brazil FAST:Austria

Address

2001 Theurer Boulevard, Winona, MN, USA, 55987-1500

Website

https://www.fastenal.com

Fastenal opened its first fastener store in 1967 in Winona, Minnesota. Since then, Fastenal has greatly expanded its footprint as well as its products and services. Today, Fastenal serves its 400,000 active customers through approximately 1,600 branches, over 1,700 on-site locations, and 14 distribution centers. Since 1993, the company has added other product categories, but fasteners remain its largest category at about 30%-35% of sales. Fastenal also offers customers supply-chain solutions, such as vending and vendor-managed inventory.

Executives

John Lewis Soderberg	officer: Executive Vice President	1757 SNOWFLAKE PLACE, ONALASKA WI 54650
Charles S. Miller	officer: Officer-Executive Vice Preside	230 CASCADE DR., PADUCAH KY 42003
Reyne K Wisecup	director
Scott Satterlee	director	8100 MITCHELL RD, STE 200, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55344
William Joseph Drazkowski	officer: Executive Vice-President	806 OLYMPIC DRIVE, ONALASKA WI 54650
James C Jansen	officer: Executive Vice President	2001 THEURER BLVD, WINONA MN 55987
Daniel L Florness	officer: Exec. V-P and CFO	FASTENAL CO, 2001 THEURER BLVD, WINONA MN 55987
Sheryl Ann Lisowski	officer: Controller/Chief Acct. Officer	155 WILDWOOD DRIVE, WINONA MN 55987
Terry Modock Owen	officer: Executive Vice President	704 DOVE CREEK TRAIL, SOUTHLAKE TX 76092
Anthony Paul Broersma	officer: EVP-Operations	4730 NORTH SERVICE DRIVE, WINONA MN 55987
Michael J Ancius	director	151 COACHLITE COURT NORTH, ONALASKA WI 54650
Irene Ayeley Quarshie	director	5070 ZIRCON LANE NORTH, PLYMOUTH MN 55446
Noelle Joan Oas	officer: Executive VP-Human Resources	2001 THEURER BOULEVARD, WINONA MN 55987
Jeffery Michael Watts	officer: Executive Vice-President	48 LAUREL CR., INGERSOLL A6 N5C-3S4
Sarah N Nielsen	director	31 LIDO ROAD, CLEAR LAKE IA 50428