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Fortune Brands Innovations (Fortune Brands Innovations) Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Fortune Brands Innovations Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Fortune Brands Innovations Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Fortune Brands Innovations (Fortune Brands Innovations) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
520 Lake Cook Road, Suite 300, Deerfield, IL, USA, 60015-5611
Fortune Brands Innovations is a leading home and security products company that operates two segments. The company's $2.6 billion plumbing segment, led by the Moen brand, sells faucets, showers, and other plumbing fixtures, and the $2.2 billion outdoors and security segment sells entry doors under the Therma-Tru brand name, Fiberon-branded patio decking, and locks and other security devices under the Master Lock and SentrySafe brand names.
Executives
Ann F Hackett director
Amee Chande director 520 LAKE COOK ROAD, SUITE 300, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Stephanie L. Pugliese director 170 COUNTRYSIDE DRIVE, BELLEVILLE WI 53508
David V. Barry officer: EVP & CFO FORTUNE BRANDS INNOVATIONS, INC., 520 LAKE COOK ROAD, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Lee John Dong Gu officer: EVP Chief Strategy & Growth 520 LAKE COOK ROAD, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Ron Wilson officer: EVP, Chief Supply Chain FORTUNE BRANDS HOME & SECURITY, INC., 520 LAKE COOK ROAD, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Hiranda S Donoghue officer: EVP Chief Legal & Secretary 520 LAKE COOK ROAD, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Cheri M Phyfer officer: EVP, Group President 520 LAKE COOK ROAD, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Sheri Grissom officer: EVP, CHRO & Transformation 13000 WEST SILVER SPRING DRIVE, BUTLER WI 53007
Nicholas I. Fink director, officer: Chief Executive Officer 510 LAKE COOK ROAD, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Patrick D Hallinan officer: EVP & CFO FORTUNE BRANDS HOME & SECURITY, INC., 520 LAKE COOK ROAD, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Mackay A D David director
Martin Thomas officer: SVP Ops &Supply Chain Strategy FORTUNE BRANDS HOME & SECURITY, INC., SUITE 300, DEERFIELD IL 60015
May Russell officer: SVP & CDO 520 LAKE COOK ROAD, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Danny Luburic officer: Vice President & Controller FORTUNE BRANDS HOME & SECURITY, INC., 520 LAKE COOK ROAD, DEERFIELD IL 60015