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Full House Resorts (Full House Resorts) Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Full House Resorts Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Full House Resorts Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Full House Resorts (Full House Resorts) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » Full House Resorts Inc (NAS:FLL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
CNTY SLNA TBTC BALY LVS HKSE:01928 HKSE:00027 MGM WYNN CZR MTN SGX:G13 BYD HKSE:02282 HGV HKSE:01128 XKLS:3182 VAC RRR XKLS:4715
Traded in Other Exchanges
F4L:Germany
Address
1980 Festival Plaza Drive, Suite 680, One Summerlin, Las Vegas, NV, USA, 89135
Website
https://www.fullhouseresorts.com
Full House Resorts Inc owns, operates, develops, manages, and invests in casinos and related hospitality and entertainment facilities. It offers facilities related to gaming, hotel, dining, entertainment, retail, and other amenities. The group's operating segments include the Bronco Billy's Casino and Hotel in Colorado, The Temporary by American Place in Illinois, Rising Star Casino Resort in Indiana, Silver Slipper Casino and Hotel in Mississippi, Grand Lodge Casino in Nevada, and Contracted Sports Wagering. There are some under-construction projects too. Geographically, the casino operations of the company are managed in the United States. It derives revenues from the operating casinos.
Executives
Kathleen M Caracciolo director 5922 CLOVERLEAF DRIVE, MAYS LANDING NJ 08330
Eric J Green director C/O FULL HOUSE RESORTS, INC., 1980 FESTIVAL PLAZA DRIVE, SUITE 680, LAS VEGAS NV 89135
Daniel R Lee director, officer: Chief Executive Officer C/O CREATIVE CASINOS LLC, 10801 W CHARLESTON BLVD #420, LAS VEGAS NV 89135
Lewis A. Fanger officer: Sr. VP, CFO and Treasurer C/O FULL HOUSE RESORTS, INC., 4670 S. FORT APACHE ROAD, SUITE 190, LAS VEGAS NV 89147
Michael A. Hartmeier director C/O DIAMONDROCK HOSPITALITY COMPANY, 2 BETHESDA METRO CENTER, SUITE 1400, BETHESDA MD 20814
Carl G Braunlich director 4670 SOUTH FORT APACHE ROAD, SUITE 190, LAS VEGAS NV 89147
Elaine Guidroz officer: Secretary C/O FULL HOUSE RESORTS, INC., 777 RISING STAR DRIVE, RISING SUN IN 47040
Kenneth Robert Adams director 210 MARSH AVE SUITE 103, RENO NV 89509
Lynn M Handler director C/O FULL HOUSE RESORTS, INC., 1980 FESTIVAL PLAZA DRIVE, SUITE 680, LAS VEGAS NV 89135
John Ferrucci officer: Chief Operating Officer C/O FULL HOUSE RESORTS, INC., 1980 FESTIVAL PLAZA DRIVE, SUITE 680, LAS VEGAS NV 89135
Michael P Shaunnessy director 50 BRIAR HOLLOW LANE, STE 500W, HOUSTON TX 77027
Bradley M Tirpak director 50 ORCHARD ST., NEW YORK NY 10002
Craig W Thomas director 2100 CRESCENT AVENUE, CHARLOTTE NC 28207
Ellis Landau director CO PINNACLE ENTERTAINMENT INC, 8918 SPANISH RIDGE AVENUE, LAS VEGAS NV 89148
Garrett W.h. Baird director C/O ELASTIC N.V., 800 WEST EL CAMINO REAL SUITE 350, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94040