Flowers Foods (Flowers Foods) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Flowers Foods Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Flowers Foods (Flowers Foods) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Flowers Foods Inc (NYSE:FLO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

FWF:Germany FWF:Germany

Address

1919 Flowers Circle, Thomasville, GA, USA, 31757

Website

https://www.flowersfoods.com

Flowers Foods Inc is an American company producing bakery food for retail and foodservice across the United States. The product portfolio includes fresh breads, buns, rolls, snack cakes, and tortillas. The company distributes to supermarkets, convenience stores, and restaurants. The key brands are Nature's Own, Whitewheat, Cobblestone Bread, Wonder, Dave's Killer Bread, Canyon Bakehouse, Mrs. Freshley's, and Tastykake.

Executives

R Steve Kinsey	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	301 HABERSHAM ROAD, THOMASVILLE GA 31792
Stephanie B Tillman	officer: Chief Legal Counsel	1919 FLOWERS CIRCLE, THOMASVILLE GA 31757
Ryals Mcmullian	officer: Chief Strategy Officer	2922 IVANHOE ROAD, TALLAHASSEE FL 32312
Brigitte King	director	1919 FLOWERS CIRCLE, THOMASVILLE GA 31757
Joanne D Smith	director	C/O DELTA AIR LINES, INC., P.O. BOX 20574, DEPT. 981, ATLANTA GA 30320
H Mark Courtney	officer: SVP Sales&Mkt Flowers Bakeries	16 MEANDER TRACE, THOMASVILLE GA 31792
Cindy Cox	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	1919 FLOWERS CIRCLE, THOMASVILLE GA 31757
Chubb Thomas Caldecot Iii	director	999 PEACHTREE ST NE, SUITE 688, ATLANTA GA 30309
Melvin T Stith	director	1111 BAY AVENUE, SUITE 501, COLUMBUS GA 31901
Thomas L Winters	officer: Chief Supply Chain Officer	1919 FLOWERS CIRCLE, THOMASVILLE GA 31757
Heeth Iv Varnedoe	officer: Chief Transformation Officer	1919 FLOWERS CIRCLE, THOMASVILLE GA 31757
William Jameson Mcfadden	director	140 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10005
Brad Cashaw	officer: Chief Supply Chain Officer	2711 NORTH HASKELL AVENUE, SUITE 3400, DALLAS TX 75204
Terry S Thomas	director	6430 STEFANI DRIVE, DALLAS TX 75225
Casey Edward J. Jr.	director	835 HAMILTON STREET, SUITE 150, ALLENTOWN PA 18101