Fidelity National Financial (Fidelity National Financial) Predictability Rank

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What is Fidelity National Financial Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Fidelity National Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Fidelity National Financial (Fidelity National Financial) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » Fidelity National Financial Inc (NYSE:FNF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

F1EF:Germany

Address

601 Riverside Avenue, Jacksonville, FL, USA, 32204

Website

https://www.fnf.com

Fidelity National Financial Inc provides title insurance, escrow, and other title-related services. It operates in three segments: Title, F&G, Corporate and Other. The title segment that derives majority revenue consists of the operations of title insurance underwriters and related businesses, which provide title insurance and escrow and other title-related services including trust activities, trustee sales guarantees, and home warranty products. Substantially all of the company's revenue is generated in the United States.

Executives

Daniel D Lane	director	14 CORPORATE PLZ, SUITE 150, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Halim Dhanidina	director	601 RIVERSIDE AVENUE, JACKSONVILLE FL 32204
Michael Joseph Nolan	officer: President	601 RIVERSIDE AVENUE, JACKSONVILLE FL 32204
Shea Peter O Jr	director	601 RIVERSIDE AVENUE, JACKSONVILLE FL 32204
Peter T Sadowski	officer: EVP, Chief Legal Officer	FIDELITY NATIONAL FINANCIAL, INC., 601 RIVERSIDE AVENUE, JACKSONVILLE FL 32204
Thomas M Hagerty	director	C/O THOMAS H. LEE PARTNERS, L.P., 100 FEDERAL STREET, 35 FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02110
Sandra Douglass Morgan	director	601 RIVERSIDE AVENUE, JACKSONVILLE FL 32204
Raymond R Quirk	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	601 RIVERSIDE AVENUE, JACKSONVILLE FL 32204
Cary H Thompson	director	1999 AVE OF THE STARS, 32ND FL, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Roger S Jewkes	officer: Chief Operating Officer	601 RIVERSIDE AVENUE, JACKSONVILLE FL 32204
Anthony Park	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	601 RIVERSIDE AVENUE, JACKSONVILLE FL 32204
Michael L Gravelle	officer: Executive Vice President	601 RIVERSIDE AVENUE, JACKSONVILLE FL 32204
Douglas K Ammerman	director	601 RIVERSIDE AVENUE, JACKSONVILLE FL 32204
Foley William P Ii	director	FIDELITY NATIONAL FINANCIAL, INC., 601 RIVERSIDE AVENUE, JACKSONVILLE FL 32204
John D Rood	director	3020 HARTLEY ROAD SUITE 300, JACKSONVILLE FL 32257