Genpact (Genpact) Predictability Rank

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What is Genpact Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Genpact Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Genpact (Genpact) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Genpact Ltd (NYSE:G) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

35G:Germany

Address

22 Victoria Street, Canon's Court, Hamilton, BMU, HM 12

Website

https://www.genpact.com

Genpact Ltd is a provider of business process management services. Clients are industry verticals and operate in banking and financial services, insurance, capital markets, consumer product goods, life sciences, infrastructure, manufacturing and services, healthcare, and high-tech. Genpact's services include aftermarket, direct procurement, risk and compliance, human resources, IT, industrial solutions, collections, finance and accounting, and media services. Genpact's end market by revenue is India. The company is a General Electric spin-off, which is still a large source of revenue for Genpact.

Executives

Kathryn Vanpelt Stein	officer: Senior Vice President	40 WEST 24TH STREET, APT 3N, NEW YORK NY 10010
N. V. Tyagarajan	officer: Executive Vice President	825 EIGHTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10019
Michael Hal Weiner	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O NGHC, 59 MAIDEN LANE, 38TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10038
Donald J Klunk	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	3585 GRAY FOX DR, CHALFONT PA 18914
Piyush Mehta	officer: Senior VP , Human Resources	825 EIGHTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10019
James C. Madden	director	825 EIGHTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10019
Cecelia Morken	director	26025 MUREAU ROAD, CALABASAS CA 91302
Heather White	officer: SVP & General Counsel	1155 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 4TH FLOOR, NEW YORK X1 10036
Stacey Cartwright	director	34 ROEDEAN CRESCENT, LONDON X0 SW15 5JU
Brian Mark Stevens	director	25 HOOPER HILL RD., NEW BOSTON NH 03070
Ajay Agrawal	director	105 ROBERT STREET, TORONTO A6 M5S 2K5
Tamara Franklin	director	107 STONE CLIFF ROAD, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Balkrishan Kalra	officer: Senior Vice President	5 MARION AVENUE, SHORT HILLS NJ 07078
Carol Lindstrom	director	5994 SILVERADO TRAIL, NAPA CA 94558
Darren Saumur	officer: Senior Vice President	125 DUPONT STREET, TORONTO A6 M5R 1V4