Greif (GEF) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Greif Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Greif (GEF) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Packaging & Containers » Greif Inc (NYSE:GEF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

PTVE OI AMBP SLGN SEE TRS SON MYE PACK KRT BALL AVY PKG AMCR IP WRK DUB:SK3 CCK TSX:CCL.A GPK

Traded in Other Exchanges

GEF.B:USA GB6B:Germany

Address

425 Winter Road, Delaware, OH, USA, 43015

Website

https://www.greif.com

Greif Inc is a producer of industrial packaging products and services with manufacturing facilities located in many countries. It offers a comprehensive line of rigid industrial packaging products, such as steel, fiber, and plastic drums, rigid intermediate bulk containers, closure systems for industrial packaging products, transit protection products, water bottles and remanufactured and reconditioned industrial containers, and services, such as container life cycle management, blending, filling, logistics, warehousing, and other packaging services. The company operates in three reportable business segments including Global Industrial Packaging, Paper Packaging and Services, and Land Management. It operates in North and Latin America, Europe, Middle East, Africa and Asia Pacific regions.

Executives

Miller Frank Calhoun V	director	425 WINTER ROAD, DELAWARE OH 43015
Vivian Bouet	officer: VP Chief Inf & Digital Officer	425 WINTER ROAD, DELAWARE OH 43015
Patrick Gerard Mullaney	officer: SVP, Pres. Global Industrial P	425 WINTER ROAD, DELAWARE OH 43015
Roel Vestjens	director	C/O BELDEN INC., 1 N. BRENTWOOD BLVD., 15TH FLOOR, SAINT LOUIS MO 63105
Anthony John Krabill	officer: Corporate Treasurer	425 WINTER ROAD, DELAWARE OH 43015
Michael Joseph Taylor	officer: Corporate Controller	425 WINTER ROAD, DELAWARE OH 43015
Matthew Douglas Eichmann	officer: VP, Chief Mktg & Sust. Officer	425 WINTER ROAD, DELAWARE OH 43015
Kimberly Thompson Scott	director	425 WINTER ROAD, DELAWARE OH 43015
Karen Morrison	director	425 WINTER ROAD, DELAWARE OH 43015
Tina R. Schoner	officer: SVP Chief Supply Chain Officer	425 WINTER RD., DELAWARE OH 43015
Kimberly Anne Kellermann	officer: SVP, Global Operations Group	425 WINTER ROAD, DELAWARE OH 43015
Nicholas Joseph Petitti	10 percent owner	200 CIVIC CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 1200, COLUMBUS OH 43215
Robert M Patterson	director	33587 WALKER ROAD, AVON LAKE OH 44012
Bala Sathyanarayanan	officer: SVP, Chief Human Resources Off	425 WINTER RD., DELAWARE OH 43015
Vicki L Avril	director	604 KENMARE DRIVE, BURR RIDGE IL 60527