Groupon (Groupon) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Groupon Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Groupon (Groupon) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Interactive Media » Groupon Inc (NAS:GRPN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

G5NA:Germany GRPN:Austria

Address

600 West Chicago Avenue, Suite 400, Chicago, IL, USA, 60654

Website

https://www.groupon.com

Groupon acts as the middleman between consumers and merchants, offering a variety of products and services at discounts via its online store. It offers consumers daily deals from local merchants. It generates revenue from the take rate on the vouchers' purchase and/or usage. More than 60% of Groupon's revenue comes from North America.

Executives

Dusan Senkypl	other: See Footnote 1 and Remarks	JESTRABI 493, OSNICE, JESENICE 2N 252 42
Jason Harinstein	director	C/O ARK GLOBAL ACQUISITION CORP., 4235 HILLSBORO PIKE, SUITE 300, NASHVILLE TN 37215
Kyle Netzly	officer: Interim CAO	600 W CHICAGO AVE, CHICAGO IL 60654
Jiri Ponrt	officer: Chief Financial Officer	600 W CHICAGO AVE, CHICAGO IL 60654
Jan Barta	other: See Footnote 1	NA BATERIICH 104/35, BREVNOV, PRAGUE 2N 16200
Pale Fire Capital Sicav A.s.	10 percent owner	ZATECKA 55/14, JOSEFOV, PRAGUE 2N 110 00
Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc.	10 percent owner	21 ST. CLAIR AVENUE EAST, SUITE 1100, TORONTO A6 M4T 1L9
Xavier Majic	10 percent owner	21 ST. CLAIR AVENUE EAST, SUITE 1100, TORONTO A6 A6 M4T 1L9
Rpd Opportunity Fund Lp	10 percent owner	767 THIRD AVE, 35TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Rpd Fund Management Llc	10 percent owner	767 THIRD AVE, 35TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Ahmet H Okumus	10 percent owner	C/O OKUMUS FUND MANAGEMENT LTD., 767 THIRD AVENUE, 35TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Pale Fire Capital Se	other: See Footnote 1 and Remarks	ZATECKA 55/14, JOSEFOV, PRAGUE 2N 110 00
Kerrie Dvorak	officer: Interim CAO	600 W. CHICAGO AVENUE, SUITE 400, CHICAGO IL 60654
Robert J Bass	director	C/O GROUPON, INC., 600 WEST CHICAGO AVENUE, SUITE 620, CHICAGO IL 60654
Deborah Wahl	director	600 WEST CHICAGO AVENUE, SUITE 400, CHICAGO IL 60654