1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co (Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
200 Innovation Way, Akron, OH, USA, 44316-0001
Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co manufactures and sells a variety of rubber tires under the Goodyear brand name. The firm's tires are used for automobiles, trucks, buses, aircraft, motorcycles, mining equipment, farm equipment, and industrial equipment. The company operates its business through three operating segments representing its regional tire businesses: Americas; Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA); and the Asia Pacific.
Executives
| Darren R Wells |
officer: Vice President & Treasurer |
THE GOODYEAR TIRE & RUBBER COMPANY, 1144 EAST MARKET STREET, AKRON OH 44316-0001 |
| Roger Wood |
director |
3850 HAMLIN RD., AUBURN HILLS MI 48326 |
| Max H Mitchell |
director |
CRANE CO, 100 FIRST STAMFORD PLACE, STAMFORD CT 06902 |
| Joseph R Hinrichs |
director |
FORD MOTOR COMPANY, ONE AMERICAN ROAD, DEARBORN MI 48126 |
| Margaret V Snyder |
officer: Vice President and Controller |
200 INNOVATION WAY, AKRON OH 44316 |
| Christina L Zamarro |
officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer |
200 INNOVATION WAY, AKRON OH 44316 |
| Norma Clayton |
director |
1915 REXFORD ROAD, CHARLOTTE NC 28211 |
| Richard J Kramer |
officer: Senior Vice President |
THE GOODYEAR TIRE & RUBBER COMPANY, 1144 EAST MARKET STREET, AKRON OH 44316-0001 |
| Stephen R Mcclellan |
officer: Pres., NAT Consumer Business |
1144 EAST MARKET STREET, AKRON OH 44316 |
| Prashanth Mahendra-rajah |
director |
C/O WABCO HOLDINGS INC., ONE CENTENNIAL AVENUE, PISCATAWAY NJ 08855 |
| Karla R Lewis |
director |
C/O RELIANCE STEEL & ALUMINUM CO., 16100 N. 71ST STREET, SUITE 400, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85254 |
| Nathaniel Madarang |
officer: President, Asia Pacific |
200 INNOVATION WAY, AKRON OH 44316 |
| Jonathan Bellissimo |
officer: SR VP Global Operations & Tech |
200 INNOVATION WAY, AKRON OH 44316 |
| Hera K Siu |
director |
200 INNOVATION WAY, AKRON OH 44316 |
| David Emmitt Phillips |
officer: Sr VP and General Counsel |
200 INNOVATION WAY, AKRON OH 44316 |
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