Getty Realty (Getty Realty) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Getty Realty Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Getty Realty (Getty Realty) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Getty Realty Corp (NYSE:GTY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

GRL:Germany GRL:Germany

Address

292 Madison Avenue, 9th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10017-6318

Website

https://www.gettyrealty.com

Getty Realty Corp is the real estate investment trust in the U.S. specializing in the acquisition, financing, and development of convenience, automotive, and other single tenant retail real estate. The company's portfolio includes convenience stores, car washes, automotive service centers (gasoline and repair, oil and maintenance, tire and battery, collision), automotive parts retailers, and certain other freestanding retail properties, including drive-thru quick service restaurants. It generates majority of the revenue in the form of rental income.

Executives

Evelyn Leon Infurna	director	292 MADISON AVE., 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017-6318
Brian Robert Dickman	officer: EVP, CFO and Treasurer	411 S. OLD WOODWARD, APT. 918, BIRMINGHAM MI 48009
Leo Liebowitz	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Pres. & CEO	2 JERICHO PLAZA, JERICHO NY 11753
Coviello Philip E Jr	director	GETTY REALTY CORP, 2 JERICHO PLAZA, STE 110, JERICHO NY 11753
Mary Louise Malanoski	director	44 BARROW STREET, NEW YORK NY 10014
Richard E Montag	director	C/O GETTY REALTY CORP., 2 JERICHO PLAZA, STE 110, JERICHO NY 11753
Mark James Olear	officer: Exec VP & Chief Operating Ofc	C/O GETTY REALTY CORP., 2 JERICHO PLAZA, SUITE 110, JERICHO NY 11753
Danion Fielding	officer: VP, CFO & Treasurer	TWO JERICHO PLAZA, WING C, SUITE 110, JERICHO NY 11753
Eugene Shnayderman	officer: See Remarks	TWO JERICHO PLAZA, WING C, SUITE 110, JERICHO NY 11753
Christopher J Constant	director, officer: President & CEO	2 JERICHO PLAZA, STE 110, JERICHO NY 11753
Joshua Dicker	officer: Ex VP, Gen Counsel & Secretary	C/O GETTY REALTY CORP., 2 JERICHO PLAZA, SUITE 110, JERICHO NY 11753
Milton Cooper	director	C/O KIMCO REALTY CORP, 3333 NEW HYDE PARK RD STE 100, HYDE PARK NY 11042
James Russell Craig	officer: Vice President	125 JERICHO TPKE, SUITE 103, JERICHO NY 11753
David B Driscoll	director	C/O MORGAN JOSEPH & CO., INC., 600 FIFTH AVE., 19TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10020-2302
Warren Wintrub	director