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Hudson Executive Investment II (Hudson Executive Investment II) Predictability Rank


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What is Hudson Executive Investment II Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Hudson Executive Investment II Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Hudson Executive Investment II Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Hudson Executive Investment II (Hudson Executive Investment II) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » Hudson Executive Investment Corp II (NAS:HCII) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
MON SCAQ MTAC HWEL MEKA ITHX ASAQ LOKM TEKK RCLF GSHN PSTH XAMS:EPIC ASZ CCYC CVII KAHC DWAC IPOF PBAJ
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
570 Lexington Avenue, 35th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10022
Website
https://www.heic2.com
Hudson Executive Investment Corp II is a blank check company.
Executives
Doug Renert director 2145 SHARON ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Ira Mosberg officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O HUDSON EXECUTIVE INVESTMENT CORP. II, 570 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 35TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Paul A Ormond director MANOR CARE INC, 333 N SUMMIT STREET, TOLEDO OH 43604
Amy W Schulman director PFIZER INC. ATTN: CORPORATE SECRETARY, 235 EAST 42ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10017
Douglas L Braunstein director, other: President, Chairman HUDSON EXECUTIVE CAPITAL LP, 570 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 35TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Douglas Bergeron director, officer: Chief Executive Officer 111 W. OCEAN BOULEVARD, LONG BEACH CA 90802
Jonathan Dobres officer: Chief Financial Officer 570 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 35TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Hec Sponsor Ii Llc 10 percent owner C/O HUDSON EXECUTIVE INVESTMENT CORP. II, 570 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 35TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022