Harte-Hanks (Harte-Hanks) Predictability Rank

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What is Harte-Hanks Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Harte-Hanks Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Harte-Hanks (Harte-Hanks) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Conglomerates » Harte-Hanks Inc (NAS:HHS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

HHK1:Germany

Address

1 Executive Drive, Chelmsford, MA, USA, 01824

Website

https://www.hartehanks.com

Harte-Hanks Inc is a customer experience company. The Company operates three business segments: Marketing Services; Customer Care; and Fulfillment & Logistics Services. The company has its geographic presence in United States and Other countries. Majority of the revenue is earned from United States.

Executives

Bradley Louis Radoff	director	2727 KIRBY DRIVE, UNIT 29L, HOUSTON TX 77098
Kirk A Davis	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O NEWM, 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Griffin John H Jr	director
Brian Linscott	officer: Chief Operating Officer	864 N BEVERLY LANE, ARLINGTON HEIGHTS IL 60004
Laurilee Kearnes	officer: Chief Financial Officer	9601 MCALLISTER FREEWAY, SUITE 610, SAN ANTONIO TX 78216
Robert T. Wyman	officer: General Counsel	2 EAST MAIN STREET, GEORGETOWN MA 01833
David L Copeland	director	PO BOX 2791, ABILENE TX 79604
Andrew B Benett	officer: Chief Executive Officer	1850 N CENTRAL AVENUE, SUITE 1900, PHOENIX AZ 85004-4565
Genevieve Claire Combes	director	2000 POWELL STREET, SUITE 300, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Tobia Alfred Victor Jr.	director	767 3RD AVENUE, SUITE 602, NEW YORK NY 10017
Maureen Oconnell	director
Evan Behrens	director	C/O SEACOR HOLDINGS INC., 2200 ELLER DRIVE, P.O. BOX 13038, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33316
Priore Mark Del	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O SITO MOBILE, LTD., 100 TOWN SQUARE PLACE, SUITE 204, JERSEY CITY NJ 07310
Martin F Reidy	director	DIGITAS INC., 800 BOYLSTON STREET, BOSTON MA 02199
Timothy E. Breen	director	9601 MCALLISTER FREEWAY, SUITE 610, SAN ANTONIO TX 78216