The Hartford Financial Services Group (The Hartford Financial Services Group) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

The Hartford Financial Services Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

The Hartford Financial Services Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

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The Hartford Financial Services Group (The Hartford Financial Services Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc (NYSE:HIG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

HIGpG.PFD:USA HFF:Germany H1IG34:Brazil

Address

One Hartford Plaza, Hartford, CT, USA, 06155

Website

https://www.thehartford.com

The Hartford Financial Services Group Inc offers a diverse range of property and casualty insurance, group benefits, and mutual fund services to a customer base of individuals and corporations. It operates in five segments: Commercial Lines, Personal Lines, Property & Casualty Other Operations, Group Benefits, and Hartford Funds, as well as a Corporate category.

Executives

Christopher Swift	officer: Executive VP and CFO	HARBORSIDE FINANCIAL CENTER, 3200 PLAZA 5, JERSEY CITY NJ 07311
Amy Stepnowski	officer: EVP	ONE HARTFORD PLAZA, HARTFORD CT 06155
Stephanie C Bush	officer: EVP	ONE HARTFORD PLAZA, HARTFORD CT 06155
Robert W Paiano	officer: EVP & Chief Risk Officer	ONE HARTFORD PLAZA, HARTFORD CT 06155
Jonathan R Bennett	officer: Executive Vice President	THE HARTFORD, ONE HARTFORD PLAZA, HARTFORD CT 06155
Allison G Niderno	officer: SVP & Controller	ONE HARTFORD PLAZA, HARTFORD CT 06155
Beth Ann Bombara	officer: Sr.Vice Pres. and Controller	ONE HARTFORD PLAZA, HARTFORD CT 06155
Adin M Tooker	officer: EVP	ONE HARTFORD PLAZA, HARTFORD CT 06155
Michael R Fisher	officer: EVP	ONE HARTFORD PLAZA, HARTFORD CT 06155
David C Robinson	officer: EVP and General Counsel	ONE HARTFORD PLAZA, HARTFORD CT 06155
Douglas G Elliot	officer: Executive Vice President	TRAVELERSJ PROPERTY CASUALTY CORP, ONE TOWER SQ, HARTFORD CT 06118
Edmund Reese	director	C/O BROADRIDGE FINANCIAL SOLUTIONS, INC., 5 DAKOTA DRIVE, LAKE SUCCESS NY 11042
Scott R. Lewis	officer: SVP and Controller	ONE HARTFORD PLAZA, HARTFORD CT 06155
Allardice Robert B. Iii	director	ONE HARTFORD PLAZA, HO-01-09, HARTFORD CT 06155
Claire H. Burns	officer: Executive Vice President	ONE HARTFORD PLAZA, HARTFORD CT 06155