Horizon Technology Finance (Horizon Technology Finance) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Horizon Technology Finance Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Horizon Technology Finance (Horizon Technology Finance) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Horizon Technology Finance Corp (NAS:HRZN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

312 Farmington Avenue, Farmington, CT, USA, 06032

Website

https://www.horizontechfinance.com

Horizon Technology Finance Corp is a specialty finance company. Its investment objective is to maximize its investment portfolio's total return by generating current income from the debt investments it makes and capital appreciation from the warrants it receives when making such debt investments. It lends to and invests in development-stage companies in the technology, life science, healthcare information and services and sustainability industries.

Executives

Michael Balkin	director	C/O FORESIGHT ACQUISITION CORP., 233 N. MICHIGAN AVE., SUITE 1410, CHICAGO IL 60601
Jonathan Joseph Goodman	director	312 FARMINGTON AVENUE, FARMINGTON CT 06032
Kimberley Ann O'connor	director	312 FARMINGTON AVENUE, FARMINGTON CT 06032
Dombrowski Lynn Denise Murray	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	312 FARMINGTON AVENUE, FARMINGTON CT 06032
Gerald A. Michaud	director, officer: President	312 FARMINGTON AVENUE, FARMINGTON CT 06032
Pomeroy Robert D. Jr.	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	312 FARMINGTON AVENUE, FARMINGTON CT 06032
Daniel R. Trolio	officer: CFO	312 FARMINGTON AVENUE, FARMINGTON CT 06032
Edmund V. Mahoney	director	312 FARMINGTON AVENUE, FARMINGTON CT 06032
Joseph J Savage	director	WEBSTER FINANCIAL CORP, 145 BANK ST, WATERBURY CT 06702
Elaine A Sarsynski	director	312 FARMINGTON AVE, FARMINGTON CT 06032
Diane Earle	officer: Chief Credit Officer	312 FARMINGTON AVENUE, FARMINGTON CT 06032
Christopher M. Mathieu	officer: SVP, CFO and Treasurer	312 FARMINGTON AVENUE, FARMINGTON CT 06032
Christopher B. Woodward	director	312 FARMINGTON AVENUE, FARMINGTON CT 06032
Compass Group Investments, Ltd.	10 percent owner	BELVEDERE BUILDING, 69 PITTS BAY ROAD, HAMILTON HM 08 D0 00000
David P. Swanson	director	312 FARMINGTON AVENUE, FARMINGTON CT 06032