InterDigital (InterDigital) Predictability Rank

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What is InterDigital Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

InterDigital Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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InterDigital (InterDigital) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » InterDigital Inc (NAS:IDCC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

IDI:Germany IDI:Germany

Address

200 Bellevue Parkway, Suite 300, Wilmington, DE, USA, 19809-3727

Website

https://www.interdigital.com

InterDigital Inc is a research and development company focused on wireless, visual, and related technologies. It designs and develops technologies that enable connected, immersive experiences in a broad range of communications and entertainment products and services. The majority of revenue is generated from fixed-fee patent license agreements, with a smaller portion coming from variable royalty agreements. Geographically it operates in the United States, China, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and Europe, Out of which the majority is from the United States.

Executives

Joshua D. Schmidt	officer: CLO & Corp Sec	200 BELLEVUE PARKWAY, SUITE 300, WILMINGTON DE 19809
Rajesh Pankaj	officer: Chief Technology Officer	200 BELLEVUE PARKWAY, SUITE 300, WILMINGTON DE 19809
Eeva K. Hakoranta	officer: Chief Licensing Officer	200 BELLEVUE PARKWAY, SUITE 300, WILMINGTON DE 19809
Eric Cohen	officer: Chief Strategy& Growth Officer	5220 LAS VIRGENES ROAD, CALABASAS CA 91302
Pierre-yves Lesaicherre	director	C/O INTERDIGITAL, INC., 200 BELLEVUE PKWY, STE 300, WILMINGTON DE 19809
Markley John D. Jr.	director	COLUMBIA CAPITAL, 201 NORTH UNION STREET, SUITE VA 22314
Samir Armaly	director	C/O XPERI HOLDING CORPORATION, 3025 ORCHARD PARKWAY, SAN JOSE CA 95134
John A Kritzmacher	director	C/O GLOBAL CROSSING LIMITED, 200 PARK AVENUE, SUITE 300, FLORHAM PARK NJ 07932
Jean F Rankin	director	1110 AMERICAN PARKWAY NE, ALLENTOWN PA 18109
Richard Brezski	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	781 THIRD AVENUE, KING OF PRUSSIA PA 19406-1409
Derek K Aberle	director	5775 MOREHOUSE DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Henry Tirri	officer: Chief Technology Officer	400 ATLANTIC STREET, SUITE 1500, STAMFORD CT 06901
Stewart D Hutcheson	director	5887 COPLEY DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92111
Joan H Gillman	director	C/O AIRGAIN, INC., 3611 VALLEY CENTRE DRIVE, SUITE 150, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Lawrence Liren Chen	director, officer: President and CEO	200 BELLEVUE PARKWAY, SUITE 300, WILMINGTON DE 19809