IF Bancorp (IF Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is IF Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

IF Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

IF Bancorp Predictability Rank Related Terms

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IF Bancorp (IF Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » IF Bancorp Inc (NAS:IROQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

201 East Cherry Street, Watseka, IL, USA, 60970

Website

https://www.iroquoisfed.com

IF Bancorp Inc is a holding company. It is mainly engaged in the business of directing, planning, and coordinating the business activities of Iroquois Federal. The company with the association take deposits from the general public and invest those deposits together with funds generated from operations and borrowings in various loans such as multi-family residential and mortgage loans, commercial real estate loans, home equity lines of credit, consumer loans, others, and also a variety of deposit accounts and alternative delivery channels.

Executives

Thomas J Chamberlain	officer: Vice President	C/O IF BANCORP, INC., 201 EAST CHERRY STREET, WATSEKA IL 60970
Richard Stenzinger	director	201 E CHERRY STREET, WATSEKA IL 60970
Dennis C Wittenborn	director	C/O IF BANCORP, INC., 201 EAST CHERRY STREET, WATSEKA IL 60970
Linda L. Hamilton	officer: EVP and COO	C/O IF BANCORP, INC., 201 EAST CHERRY STREET, WATSEKA IL 60970
Terry W Acree	officer: Vice President	C/O IF BANCORP, INC., 201 EAST CHERRY STREET, WATSEKA IL 60970
Rodney E Yergler	director	C/O IF BANCORP, INC., 201 EAST CHERRY STREET, WATSEKA IL 60970
Frank J Simutis	director	C/O IF BANCORP, INC., 201 EAST CHERRY STREET, WATSEKA IL 60970
Wayne A Lehmann	director	C/O IF BANCORP, INC., 201 EAST CHERRY STREET, WATSEKA IL 60970
Joseph A Cowan	director	C/O IF BANCORP, INC., 201 EAST CHERRY STREET, WATSEKA IL 60970
Hasselbring Walter H Iii	officer: Vice President and COO	C/O IF BANCORP, INC., 201 EAST CHERRY STREET, WATSEKA IL 60970
Alan D Martin	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O IF BANCORP, INC., 201 EAST CHERRY STREET, WATSEKA IL 60970
Gary Martin	director	C/O IF BANCORP, INC., 201 EAST CHERRY STREET, WATSEKA IL 60970
Pamela J Verkler	officer: VP, CFO and Treasurer	C/O IF BANCORP, INC., 201 EAST CHERRY STREET, WATSEKA IL 60970
Ardith Heuton	director	C/O IF BANCORP, INC., 201 EAST CHERRY STREET, WATSEKA IL 60970
John D Martin	director	C/O IF BANCORP, INC., 201 EAST CHERRY STREET, WATSEKA IL 60970