Investors Title Co (Investors Title Co) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Investors Title Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Investors Title Co (Investors Title Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » Investors Title Co (NAS:ITIC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

121 North Columbia Street, Chapel Hill, NC, USA, 27514

Website

https://www.invtitle.com

Investors Title Co along with its subsidiaries is engaged in the issuance of residential and commercial title insurance through ITIC and NITIC. It also provides tax-deferred real property exchange services, investment management, and trust services, and management services to title insurance agencies. The company generates its revenue from interest and dividends.

Executives

James E Scott	director	121 NORTH COLUMBIA STREET, CHAPEL HILL NC 27514
Parker, Jr. Elton C.	director	121 N COLUMBIA STREET, P O DRAWER 2687, CHAPEL HILL NC 27514
Tammy Coley	director	121 N COLUMBIA STREET, P O DRAWER 2687, CHAPEL HILL NC 27514
Fine James A Jr	director, officer: President, Treasurer
Markel Gayner Asset Management Corp	10 percent owner	4521 HIGHWOODS PKWY, GLEN ALLEN VA 23060
Timothy B Murphy	officer: Chief Executive Officer	230 BROADWAY, LYNNFIELD MA 01940
Markel Corp	10 percent owner	4521 HIGHWOODS PKWY, GLEN ALLEN VA 23060
Markel American Insurance Co	10 percent owner	4521 HIGHWOODS PARKWAY, GLEN ALLEN VA 23060
Essex Insurance Co	10 percent owner
Evanston Insurance Co	10 percent owner
R Horace Johnson	director	3317 LANDOR ROAD, RALEIGH NC 27609
Speed James H. Jr.	director	11032 BRASS KETTLE ROAD, RALEIGH NC 27614
Hutson Richard M Ii	director	PO BOX 2687, CHAPEL HILL NC 27515
W Morris Fine	director, officer: Executive Vice President
J Allen Fine	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	121 NORTH COLUMBIA ST, INVESTORS TITLE CO, CHAPEL HILL NC 97514