JetBlue Airways (JetBlue Airways) Predictability Rank

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JetBlue Airways Predictability Rank Definition

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

JetBlue Airways Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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JetBlue Airways (JetBlue Airways) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » JetBlue Airways Corp (NAS:JBLU) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

JBLU:Mexico 1JAM:Italy JAW:Germany JAW:Germany

Address

27-01 Queens Plaza North, Long Island City, NY, USA, 11101

Website

https://www.jetblue.com

JetBlue Airways Corp is a low-cost airline that offers high-quality service, including assigned seating and in-flight entertainment. It served approximately 100 destinations in the United States, the Caribbean and Latin America, Canada, and England. The company currently operates Airbus A321, Airbus A320, Airbus A321neo, and Embraer E190 aircraft types. The operating segments of company are Domestic & Canada, Caribbean & Latin America and Atlantic. Majority of revenue is generated from Domestic & Canada segment.

Executives

Gerald Alfred Spencer	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	C/O JETBLUE AIRWAYS CORPORATION, 27-01 QUEENS PLAZA NORTH, LONG ISLAND CITY NY 11101
Carol Ann Clements	officer: Chief Digital & Tech Officer	C/O JETBLUE AIRWAYS CORPORATION, 27-01 QUEENS PLAZA NORTH, LONG ISLAND CITY NY 11101
Brandon Nelson	officer: General Counsel Corp Sec	C/O JETBLUE AIRWAYS CORPORATION, 27-01 QUEENS PLAZA NORTH, LONG ISLAND CITY NY 11101
Robert F Leduc	director	UNITED TECHNOLOGIES CORP, 10 FARM SPRINGS ROAD, FARMINGTON CT 06032
Teri P Mcclure	director	55 GLENLAKE PARKWAY NE, ATLANTA GA 30328
Monte E Ford	director	C/O AKAMAI TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 8 CAMBRIDGE CENTER, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
O'hagan Sarah Robb	director	C/O JETBLUE AIRWAYS CORPORATION, 27-01 QUEENS PLAZA NORTH, LONG ISLAND CITY NY 11101
Vivek Sharma	director	C/O JETBLUE AIRWAYS CORP, 27-01 QUEENS PLAZA N, LONG ISLAND CITY NY 11101
Thomas Winkelmann	director	C/O JETBLUE AIRWAYS CORPORATION, 27-01 QUEENS PLAZA NORTH, LONG ISLAND CITY NY 11101
Ellen Jewett	director	C/O JETBLUE AIRWAYS CORPORATION, 27-01 QUEENS PLAZA NORTH, LONG ISLAND CITY NY 11101
B Ben Baldanza	director	C/O SPIRIT AIRLINES, INC., 2800 EXECUTIVE WAY, MIRAMAR FL 33025
Peter Boneparth	director	1411 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10018
Ursula L Hurley	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O JETBLUE AIRWAYS CORPORATION, 27-01 QUEENS PLAZA NORTH, LONG ISLAND CITY NY 11101
David Christopher Clark	officer: Head of Revenue and Planning	C/O JETBLUE AIRWAYS CORPORATION, 27-01 QUEENS PLAZA NORTH, LONG ISLAND CITY NY 11101
Robin Hayes	director, officer: CEO	C/O JETBLUE AIRWAYS CORPORATION, 27-01 QUEENS PLAZA NORTH, LONG ISLAND CITY NY 11101