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Jack Henry & Associates (Jack Henry & Associates) Predictability Rank


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5 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Jack Henry & Associates Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Jack Henry & Associates Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Jack Henry & Associates (Jack Henry & Associates) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Jack Henry & Associates Inc (NAS:JKHY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
EPAM PSN GLOB CACI LDOS SAIC G EXLS KD CLVT ACN IBM NSE:TCS FI NSE:INFY NSE:HCLTECH FIS XPAR:CAP IT CTSH
Traded in Other Exchanges
JHY:Germany JHY:Germany J1KH34:Brazil
Address
663 Highway 60, P.O. Box 807, Monett, MO, USA, 65708
Website
https://www.jackhenry.com
Jack Henry is a leading provider of core processing and complementary services, such as electronic funds transfer, payment processing, and loan processing for U.S. banks and credit unions, with a focus on small and midsize banks. Jack Henry serves almost 1,000 banks and over 700 credit unions.
Executives
Stacey E. Zengel officer: Vice President PO BOX 807, 663 HWY 60, MONETT MO 65708
Thomas A Wimsett director
Laura G. Kelly director PO BOX 807, 663 HIGHWAY 60, MONETT MO 65708
David B Foss officer: PRESIDENT PO BOX 807, 663 HWY 60, MONETT MO 65708
Mimi Carsley officer: CFO and Treasurer 6333 N. STATE HWY 161, 6TH FLOOR, IRVING TX 75038
Renee Ann Swearingen officer: Sr VP & Chief Accounting Offic PO BOX 807, 663 HWY 60, MONETT MO 65708
Gregory R. Adelson officer: Vice President PO BOX 807, 663 HWY 60, MONETT MO 65708
Wilson Thomas Hampton Jr. director PO BOX 807, 663 HWY 60, MONETT MO 65708
Curtis A Campbell director 6333 N. STATE HWY 161, 6TH FLOOR, IRVING TX 75038
John F Prim officer: PRESIDENT PO BOX 807-663 HWY 60, MONETT MO 65708
Steven W. Tomson officer: VICE PRESIDENT PO BOX 807, 663 HWY 60, MONETT MO 65708
Kevin D Williams officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER PO BOX 807-663 HWY 60, MONETT MO 65708
Mark S Forbis officer: IMAGE DEPARTMENT MANAGER 663 HWY 60, PO BOX 807, MONETT MO 65708
Ronald L. Moses officer: Vice President PO BOX 807, 663 HWY 60, MONETT MO 65708
Wesley A Brown director PO BOX 807, 663 HWY 60, MONETT MO 65708