John Wiley & Sons (John Wiley & Sons) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

John Wiley & Sons Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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John Wiley & Sons (John Wiley & Sons) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » John Wiley & Sons Inc (NYSE:WLY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

WLYB:USA 2F70:Germany 2F7:Germany

Address

111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ, USA, 07030

Website

https://www.wiley.com

John Wiley & Sons Inc is one of the foremost global providers of academic journals, books, pre- and post-hire assessments and training, test preparation materials, and online education program management solutions. Wiley derived more than 85% of its total revenue from digital products and tech-enabled services, The company has reorganized our Education lines of business into two new customer-centric segments. The Academic segment addresses the university customer group and includes Academic Publishing and University Services. The Talent segment addresses the corporate customer group and is focused on delivering training, sourcing, and upskilling solutions.

Executives

Deirdre P. Silver	officer: EVP, General Counsel	C/O 111 RIVER STREET, HOBOKEN NJ 07030
Christopher Caridi	officer: SVP, Global Corp Controller	C/O 111 RIVER STREET, HOBOKEN NJ 07030
Todd Zipper	officer: EVP & GM, Talent	C/O 111 RIVER STREET, HOBOKEN NJ 07030
Brian A. Napack	director, officer: President & CEO	C/O JOHN WILEY & SONS, INC., 111 RIVER STREET, HOBOKEN NJ 07030
Kevin Monaco	officer: SVP, Treasurer & Tax	2 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10016
Matthew Leavy	officer: EVP & GM, APL	C/O 111 RIVER STREET, HOBOKEN NJ 07030
Aref Matin	officer: EVP, Chief Technology Officer	C/O, 111 RIVER STREET, HOBOKEN NJ 07030
Danielle Mcmahan	officer: EVP, Chief People and Bus Ops	C/O 111 RIVER STREET, HOBOKEN NJ 07030
Tassell Christina Van	officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer	C/O 111 RIVER STREET, HOBOKEN NJ 07030
Inder M Singh	director	C/O UNISYS CORPORATION, 801 LAKEVIEW DRIVE, SUITE 100, BLUE BELL PA 19422
George Bell	director	117 KENDRICK STREET, STE 200, NEEDHAM MA 02494
David C Dobson	director	C/O 111 RIVER ST., HOBOKEN NJ 07030
Mari Jean Baker	director	125 SHAWNEE PASS, PORTOLA VALLEY CA 94028
Laurie A Leshin	director	111 RIVER STREET, HOBOKEN NJ 07030
Beth A Birnbaum	director	C/O 111 RIVER STREET, HOBOKEN NJ 07030