Nordstrom (Nordstrom) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1986. Start your Free Trial

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Nordstrom Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Nordstrom Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Nordstrom's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Nordstrom (Nordstrom) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Nordstrom Inc (NYSE:JWN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

JWN:Mexico NRD:Germany J1WN34:Brazil

Address

1617 Sixth Avenue, Seattle, WA, USA, 98101

Website

https://www.Nordstrom.com

Nordstrom is a fashion retailer that operates about 93 department stores and approximately 260 off-price Nordstrom Rack stores. The company also operates both full- and off-price e-commerce sites, two clearance stores, and seven Local locations. Nordstrom's largest merchandise categories are women's apparel (28% of 2022 sales), shoes (26% of 2022 sales), men's apparel (15% of 2022 sales), and women's accessories (13% of 2022 sales). Nordstrom, which traces its history to a shoe store opened in Seattle in 1901, continues to be partially owned and managed by members of the eponymous family.

Executives

Gemma Lionello	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O NORDSTROM, INC., 1617 SIXTH AVENUE, SEATTLE WA 98101
Guy Persaud	director	C/O NORDSTROM, INC., 1617 SIXTH AVENUE, SEATTLE WA 98101
Fanya Chandler	officer: President, Nordstrom Stores	C/O NORDSTROM, INC., 1617 SIXTH AVENUE, SEATTLE WA 98101
Teri Bariquit	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O NORDSTROM, INC., 1617 SIXTH AVENUE, SEATTLE WA 98101
Cathy R Smith	officer: Chief Financial Officer	TARGET CORPORATION, 1000 NICOLLET MALL, TPS-3155, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55403
Jason Morris	officer: CTIO	C/O NORDSTROM, INC., 1617 SIXTH AVENUE, SEATLE WA 98101
Eric D Sprunk	director	ONE BOWERMAN DRIVE, BEAVERTON OR 97005
Ken Worzel	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O NORDSTROM, INC., 1617 SIXTH AVENUE, SEATTLE WA 98101
Atticus Nathaniel Tysen	director	C/O NORDSTROM, INC., 1617 SIXTH AVENUE, SEATTLE WA 98101
Anne L Bramman	officer: Chief Financial Officer	207 GOODE AVENUE, GLENDALE CA 91203
Amie Thuener O'toole	director	C/O ALPHABET INC., 1600 AMPHITHEATRE PKWY, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Peter E Nordstrom	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O NORDSTROM INC, 1617 SIXTH AVE, SEATTLE WA 98101
Bradley D Tilden	director	NORDSTROM, INC. ATTN: CORP. SEC., 1617 SIXTH AVENUE, SEATTLE WA 98101
Farrell B. Redwine	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	C/O NORDSTROM, INC., 1617 SIXTH AVENUE, SEATTLE WA 98101
Geevy Sk Thomas	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O NORDSTROM INC, 5820 GLADES ROAD, BOCA RATON FL 33431