Kellanova Co (Kellanova Co) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Kellanova Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Kellanova Co (Kellanova Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Kellanova Co (NYSE:K) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

K:Mexico 1K:Italy KEL:Germany KEL:Germany KEL:Germany KEL:Germany K1EL34:Brazil KELL:Austria

Address

412 N. Wells Street, Chicago, IL, USA, 60654

Website

https://www.kellanova.com

Following its split from the North American cereal business, Kellanova (previously the global snacking arm of Kellogg) is a leading global manufacturer and marketer of salty snacks, snack bars, frozen breakfast fare, meat alternatives, and other packaged foods. Its offerings are manufactured in around 20 countries and marketed in more than 180 countries. Its product mix includes well-known brands such as Pringles, Cheez-It, Rice Krispies Treats, Pop-Tarts, Eggo, Nutri-Grain, and Morningstar Farms. Sales beyond its home turf account for about half of Kellanova's consolidated sales base.

Executives

Kellogg W K Foundation Trust	10 percent owner	50 S. LA SALLE ST., B-10, CHICAGO IL 60603
John Min	officer: Chief Legal Officer	ONE KELLOGG SQUARE, BATTLE CREEK MI 49017
Christopher M Hood	officer: Senior Vice President	ONE KELLOGG SQUARE, PO BOX 3599, BATTLE CREEK MI 49016-3599
Kris Bahner	officer: SVP-Chief Global Corp Affairs	ONE KELLOGG SQUARE, BATTLE CREEK MI 49017
Nicolas Amaya	officer: Senior Vice President	ONE KELLOGG SQUARE, BATTLE CREEK MI 49017
Charisse Ford Hughes	officer: Senior Vice President	C/O CROCS, INC., 13601 VIA VARRA, BROOMFIELD CO 80020
Gary H Pilnick	officer: Senior Vice President
Kurt D Forche	officer: VP-Corporate Controller	ONE KELLOGG SQUARE, PO BOX 3599, BATTLE CREEK MI 49016-3599
Amit Banati	officer: Senior Vice President	ONE KELLOGG SQUARE, PO BOX 3599, BATTLE CREEK MI 49016-3599
Rodrigo Lance	officer: Senior Vice President	ONE KELLOGG SQUARE, BATTLE CREEK MI 49017
Alistair D Hirst	officer: SVP - Global Supply Chain	ONE KELLOGG SQUARE, PO BOX 3599, BATTLE CREEK MI 49016-3599
J Michael Schlotman	director	1014 VINE ST, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Steven A Cahillane	director, officer: CEO & President	ONE COCA-COLA PLAZA, ATLANTA GA 30313
Shumit Kapoor	officer: Senior Vice President	ONE KELLOGG SQUARE, BATTLE CREEK MI 49017
Maria Fernanda Mejia	officer: Senior Vice President	ONE KELLOGG SQUARE, PO BOX 3599, BATTLE CREEK MI 49016-3599