Kennedy-Wilson Holdings (Kennedy-Wilson Holdings) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Kennedy-Wilson Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Kennedy-Wilson Holdings (Kennedy-Wilson Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » Real Estate » Kennedy-Wilson Holdings Inc (NYSE:KW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

13K:Germany

Address

151 S El Camino Drive, Beverly Hills, CA, USA, 90212

Website

https://www.kennedywilson.com

Kennedy-Wilson Holdings Inc is a real estate investment company that owns, operates, and invests in real estate both on its own and through its investment management platform. The Company focuses on multifamily and office properties, as well as industrial and debt investments. It has two business segments; Consolidated Portfolio includes investment activities that involve ownership of multifamily units, office, retail and industrial space, and one hotel, and The Co-Investment Portfolio segment consists of investments the Company makes with partners in which it receives fees, performance allocations that it earns on its fee-bearing capital and distributions and profits from its ownership interest in the underlying operations of its co-investments.

Executives

William J Mcmorrow	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	530 WILSHIRE BLVD, STE 101, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Michael John Pegler	officer: President KW Europe	151 S EL CAMINO DRIVE, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90212
Regina Wambold Finnegan	officer: EVP, Risk Management and HR	151 S EL CAMINO DRIVE, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90212
Todd L Boehly	director	600 STEAMBOAT ROAD, GREENWICH CT 06830
Boucher Richard Aidan Hugh	director	151 S EL CAMINO DRIVE, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90212
Wade Burton	director	151 S EL CAMINO DRIVE, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90212
Stanley R Zax	director	ZENITH NATIONAL INSURANCE, 21255 CALIFA STREET, WOODLAND HILLS CA 91367
Mary Ricks	officer: Co-CEO of KW Com Invt Group
Watsa V Prem Et Al	10 percent owner	95 WELLINGTON STREET WEST, SUITE 800, TORONTO A6 M5J 2N7
Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd/ Can	10 percent owner	FAIRFAX FINANCIAL HOLDINGS LTD, 95 WELLINGTON ST WEST STE 800, TORONTO A6 M5J 2N7
Second 1109 Holdco Ltd.	10 percent owner	95 WELLINGTON ST W STE 800, TORONTO A6 M5J 2N7
Sixty Two Investment Co Ltd	10 percent owner	1600 CATHEDRAL PLACE, 925 W GEORGIA ST, VANCOUVER BC CANADA A1 V6C3L3
Justin Enbody	officer: Chief Financial Officer	9701 WILSHIRE BLVD., SUITE 700, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90212
Kent Y Mouton	director	C/O KENNEDY WILSON INC, 9601 WILSHIRE BLVD STE 220, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90210
Cathy Hendrickson	director	9701 WILSHIRE BLVD., SUITE 700, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90210