GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Distribution » Distribution Solutions Group Inc (NAS:DSGR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Distribution Solutions Group (Distribution Solutions Group) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 1990. Start your Free Trial
3 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Distribution Solutions Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Distribution Solutions Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Distribution Solutions Group's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Distribution Solutions Group (Distribution Solutions Group) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Distribution » Distribution Solutions Group Inc (NAS:DSGR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
GIC BXC TRNS DXPE TITN EVI WARM MSM BECN AIT GWW FERG FAST WSO POOL ASX:REH CNM OSTO:INDT WCC TSX:TIH
Traded in Other Exchanges
LW2:Germany
Address
8770 W. Bryn Mawr Avenue, Suite 900, Chicago, IL, USA, 60631
Website
https://www.lawsonproducts.com
Distribution Solutions Group Inc is an industrial distributor of maintenance and repair supplies. It has three operating segments namely Lawson, TestEquity, and Gexpro Services, of which key revenue is derived from the TestEquity segment. The TestEquity segment is a distributor of test and measurement equipment and solutions, electronic production supplies, and tool kits from its leading manufacturer partners supporting the technology, aerospace, defense, automotive, electronics, education, and medical industries.
Executives
Cesar Lanuza officer: President and CEO 8770 W. BYRN MAWR AVE. SUITE 900, C/O LAWSON PRODUCTS, CHICAGO IL 60634
Lkcm Headwater Investments Iv, L.p. 10 percent owner 301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 1600, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Robert Zamarripa director 8770 W. BYRN MAWR AVE. SUITE 900, C/O DISTRIBUTION SOLUTIONS GROUP, INC., CHICAGO IL 60631
Robert R Connors officer: See Remarks POST OFFICE 792, MUNCIE IN 47308-0792
Russ Frazee officer: See Remarks 8770 W. BYRN MAWR AVE. SUITE 900, C/O LAWSON PRODUCTS, CHICAGO IL 60634
King Luther Capital Management Corp 10 percent owner 301 COMMERCE SUITE 1600, FORT WORTH TX 76102
301 Hw Opus Investors, Llc 10 percent owner 301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 1600, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Lkcm Te Investors, Llc 10 percent owner 301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 1600, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Lkcm Headwater Ii Sidecar Partnership, L.p. 10 percent owner 301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 1600, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Lkcm Headwater Investments Iii, L.p. 10 percent owner 301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 1600, FORT WORTH TX 76102
David S Lambert officer: VP, Controller and CAO 770 W. BRYN MAWR AVE., SUITE 900, CHICAGO IL 60631
Bianca Rhodes director 8770 W. BRYN MAWR AVE. SUITE 900, C/O LAWSON PRODUCTS, CHICAGO IL 60622
Richard D Pufpaf officer: SVP and General Counsel 8770 W. BRYN MAWR AVE. SUITE 900, CHICAGO IL 60631
Matthew Jay Brown officer: SVP, Sales C/O LAWSON PRODUCTS, INC., 8770 WEST BRYN MAWR AVE, SUITE 900, CHICAGO IL 60631
Shane Mccarthy officer: SVP, Operations C/O LAWSON PRODUCTS, INC., 8770 WEST BRYN MAWR AVENUE, SUITE 900, CHICAGO IL 60631