Lennar (Lennar) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Lennar Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Lennar Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Lennar (Lennar) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Homebuilding & Construction » Lennar Corp (NYSE:LEN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

LEN.B:USA LEN:Mexico LNN0:Germany LNN:Germany LNN:Germany L1EN34:Brazil

Address

5505 Blue Lagoon Drive, Miami, FL, USA, 33126

Website

https://www.lennar.com

Based on the number of delivered homes, Lennar is the second-largest public homebuilder in the United States, behind D.R. Horton. The company's homebuilding operations target first-time, move-up, and active adult homebuyers mainly under the Lennar brand name. Lennar's financial-services segment provides mortgage financing and related services to its homebuyers. Miami-based Lennar is also involved in multifamily construction and has invested in numerous housing-related technology startups.

Executives

Amy Banse	director	345 PARK AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95110
Dacona Smith	director	5505 BLUE LAGOON DRIVE, MIAMI FL 33126
Serena Wolfe	director	ANNALY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, INC., 1211 AVE. OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Jeffrey Joseph Mccall	officer: Senior Vice President	26 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, IRVINE CA 92618
Diane J Bessette	officer: Vice President and Controller	LENNAR CORPORATION, 700 NW 107 AVE 4TH FLR, MIAMI FL 33172
David M Collins	officer: Controller	LENNAR CORPORATION, 700 NW 107 AVENUE STE 400, MIAMI FL 33172
Mark Sustana	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	LENNAR CORPORATION, 700 NW 107 AVE 4TH FLR, MIAMI FL 33172
Jonathan M Jaffe	director, officer: Vice President	LENNAR CORPORATION, 700 NW 107 AVE 4TH FLR, MIAMI FL 33172
Scott D Stowell	director
Irving Bolotin	director	LENNAR CORPORATION, 700 NW 107 AVE 4TH FLR, MIAMI FL 33172
Armando J Olivera	director	C/O FLUOR CORPORATION, 6700 LAS COLINAS BLVD, IRVING TX 75039
Steven L Gerard	director	P.O. BOX 554, MILWAUKEE WI 53201-0554
Sherrill W Hudson	director	201 SOUTH BISCAYNE BOULEVARD, 34TH FLOOR, MIAMI CENTER, MIAMI FL 33131
Jeffrey Sonnenfeld	director	14 WALL ST 13TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10005
Theron I Gilliam	director	GMS INC., 100 CRESCENT CENTRE PARKWAY, SUITE 800, TUCKER GA 30084