LL Flooring Holdings (LL Flooring Holdings) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2007. Start your Free Trial

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

LL Flooring Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

LL Flooring Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of LL Flooring Holdings's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

LL Flooring Holdings (LL Flooring Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » LL Flooring Holdings Inc (NYSE:LL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

4901 Bakers Mill Lane, Richmond, VA, USA, 23230

Website

https://www.llflooring.com

LL Flooring Holdings Inc is a specialty retailer of hardwood flooring in North America. The firm primarily operates across the U.S. and Ontario, Canada, through its retail store operations segment. Its products include foreign and domestic hardwood species, engineered hardwood, laminate, resilient-vinyl, bamboo, and cork flooring. The company derives most of its revenue from laminate, vinyl, engineered vinyl plank, and porcelain tile, followed by Solid and Engineered Hardwood. The firm also offers a selection of flooring enhancements and accessories, including moldings, noise-reducing underlay, adhesives, and flooring tools. It primarily targets do-it-yourself (DIY), do-it-for-me (DIFM), and commercial customers. Bellawood is a core brand of the company.

Executives

Robert L Madore	officer: EVP and CFO	C/O RALPH LAUREN CORPORATION, 650 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
F Terrence Blanchard	officer: Interim CFO	C/O LAWSON PRODUCTS, INC., 1666 EAST TOUHY AVENUE, DES PLAINES IL 60018
Kristian B Lesher	officer: SVP and CTO	4901 BAKERS MILL LANE, RICHMOND VA 23230
Chasity D Grosh	other: Chief Accounting Officer	4901 BAKERS MILL LANE, RICHMOND VA 23230
Michael E Dauberman	officer: EVP, CGO	4901 BAKERS MILL LANE, RICHMOND VA 23230
Clark Douglas S Jr	officer: SVP Merch & Supply Chain	4901 BAKERS MILL LANE, RICHMOND VA 23230
Douglas T Moore	director	9950 MAYLAND DR, RICHMOND VA 23233
Joseph M Nowicki	director	C/O BEACON ROOFING SUPPLY, INC., 505 HUNTMAR PARK DRIVE SUITE 300, HERNDON VA 20170
Charles E Tyson	director, officer: President & CEO	LL FLOORING HOLDINGS, INC., 4901 BAKERS MILL LANE, RICHMOND VA 23230
Ashish Parmar	director	4901 BAKERS MILL LANE, RICHMOND VA 23230
Nancy M Taylor	director	TREDEGAR CORP, 1100 BOULDERS PARKWAY, RICHMOND VA 23219
Famous P Rhodes	director	4960 CONFERENCE WAY NORTH, SUITE 100, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Jimmie L Wade	director	C/O ADVANCE AUTO PARTS, 5673 AIRPORT RD, ROANOKE VA 24012
Matt T Argano	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	LL FLOORING HOLDINGS, INC., 4901 BAKERS MILL LANE, RICHMOND VA 23230
Terri F Graham	director	C/O JACK IN THE BOX INC, 9330 BALVOA AVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92123