Eli Lilly and Co (Eli Lilly and Co) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Eli Lilly and Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Eli Lilly and Co (Eli Lilly and Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Eli Lilly and Co (NYSE:LLY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

LLY:Mexico 1LLY:Italy LLY:Germany LLY:Germany LLY:Germany LLY:Germany LLY:Switzerland LLY:Canada LILY34:Brazil LLYC:Austria LLY:Argentina

Address

Lilly Corporate Center, Indianapolis, IN, USA, 46285

Website

https://www.lilly.com

Eli Lilly is a drug firm with a focus on neuroscience, cardiometabolic, cancer, and immunology. Lilly's key products include Verzenio for cancer; Mounjaro, Zepbound, Jardiance, Trulicity, Humalog, and Humulin for diabetes; and Taltz and Olumiant for immunology.

Executives

Lilly Endowment Inc	10 percent owner	2801 NORTH MERIDIAN ST, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46208
Donald A Zakrowski	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	LILLY CORPORATE CENTER, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46285
Alonzo Weems	officer: SVP, ERM & CECO	LILLY CORPORATE CENTER, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46285
Patrik Jonsson	officer: SVP and Pres., Lilly Bio-Meds	LILLY CORPORATE CENTER, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46285
Anne E. White	officer: SVP & Pres-Lilly Oncology	LILLY CORPORATE CENTER, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46285
Eric Dozier	officer: EVP, HR & Diversity	LILLY CORPORATE CENTER, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46285
Jackson P Tai	director
Mary Lynne Hedley	director	C/O TESARO, INC., 1000 WINTER ST., STE 3300, WALTHAM MA 02451
Marschall S Runge	director	LILLY CORPORATE CENTER, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46285
Naarden Jacob Van	officer: SVP, CEO LoxoONC, Pres LlyONC	C/O ELI LILLY & CO, LILLY CORPORATE CENTER, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46285
Diogo Rau	officer: SVP & CIDO	LILLY CORPORATE CENTER, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46285
Edgardo Hernandez	officer: SVP & Pres., Mfg. Operations	LILLY CORPORATE CENTER, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46285
Kimberly H Johnson	director	C/O FANNIE MAE, 1100 15TH STREET, NW, WASHINGTON DC 20005
Anat Ashkenazi	officer: SVP & CFO	LILLY CORPORATE CENTER, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46285
Gabrielle Sulzberger	director	450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, FLOOR 13, NEW YORK NY 10017