Southwest Airlines Co (Southwest Airlines Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Southwest Airlines Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Southwest Airlines Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Southwest Airlines Co (Southwest Airlines Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » Southwest Airlines Co (NYSE:LUV) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

LUV:Mexico SWN:Germany SWN:Germany S1OU34:Brazil LUV:Austria

Address

P.O. Box 36611, Dallas, TX, USA, 75235-1611

Website

https://www.southwest.com

Southwest Airlines is the largest domestic air carrier in the United States by passengers boarded. Southwest operates over 700 aircraft in an all-Boeing 737 fleet. Despite offering some longer routes and a few perks for business travelers, the airline predominantly specializes in short-haul, leisure flights, using a point-to-point network. Southwest operates a low-cost carrier business model.

Executives

Roy Blunt	director	2702 LOVE FIELD DRIVE, HDQ 4GC, DALLAS TX 75235
Elaine Mendoza	director	2223 POSTOAK COURT, SAN ANTONIO TX 78248
Eduardo F Conrado	director	1303 E. ALGONQUIN ROAD, SCHAUMBURG IL 60196
Ryan C. Green	officer: EVP, Chief Commercial Officer	2702 LOVE FIELD DRIVE, HDQ 4GC, DALLAS TX 75235
Jill A. Soltau	director	123 SOUTH FRONT STREET, MEMPHIS TN 38103
John T Montford	director	C/O SOUTHWEST AIRLINES CO, 2702 LOVE FIELD DR PO BOX 36611, DALLAS TX 75235-1611
Christopher P. Reynolds	director	2702 LOVE FIELD DRIVE, HDQ 4GC, DALLAS TX 75235
David P Hess	director	390 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Thomas W. Gilligan	director	C/O KB HOME, 10990 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, 7TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90024
Linda B. Rutherford	officer: EVP People and Communications	2702 LOVE FIELD DRIVE, HDQ 4GC, DALLAS TX 75235
Robert E Jordan	officer: EVP - Strategy and Planning	C/O SOUTHWEST AIRLINES CO., 2702 LOVE FIELD DRIVE, DALLAS TX 75235
Gregory D Wells	officer: EVP, Daily Operations	2702 LOVE FIELD DRIVE, HDQ 4GC, DALLAS TX 75235
Alan Kasher	officer: EVP Daily Operations	2702 LOVE FIELD DRIVE, HDQ 4GC, DALLAS TX 75235
Mark R Shaw	officer: SVP,Gen Counsel,Corp.Secretary	2702 LOVE FIELD DRIVE, HDQ 4GC, DALLAS TX 75235
Tammy Romo	officer: SR VP Finance & CFO	C/O SOUTHWEST AIRINES CO., 2702 LOVE FIELD DR., DALLAS TX 75235