Las Vegasnds (Las Vegasnds) Predictability Rank

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What is Las Vegasnds Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Las Vegasnds Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Las Vegasnds (Las Vegasnds) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » Las Vegas Sands Corp (NYSE:LVS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

LVS:Mexico LCR:Germany LCR:Germany L1VS34:Brazil LVS:Argentina

Address

5500 Haven Street, Las Vegas, NV, USA, 89119

Website

https://www.sands.com

Las Vegas Sands is the world's largest operator of fully integrated resorts, featuring casino, hotel, entertainment, food and beverage, retail, and convention center operations. The company owns the Venetian Macao, Sands Macao, Londoner Macao, Four Seasons Hotel Macao, and Parisian Macao, as well as the Marina Bay Sands resort in Singapore. Its Venetian and Palazzo Las Vegas assets in the U.S. were sold to Apollo and VICI for $6.25 billion in 2022. We expect Sands to open a fourth tower in Singapore in 2029. With the sale of its Vegas assets, the company generates all its EBITDA from Asia, with its casino operations generating the majority of sales.

Executives

Miriam Adelson	10 percent owner	5500 HAVEN STREET, LAS VEGAS NV 89119
Charles D Forman	director	3355 LAS VEGAS BOULEVARD SOUTH, LAS VEGAS NV 89109
Yibing Mao	director	C/O LAS VEGAS SANDS CORP., 3355 LAS VEGAS BLVD SOUTH, LAS VEGAS NV 89109
Nora M. Jordan	director	3355 LAS VEGAS BOULEVARD SOUTH, LAS VEGAS NV 89109
D. Zachary Hudson	officer: EVP and Global General Counsel	3355 LAS VEGAS BOULEVARD SOUTH, LAS VEGAS NV 89109
Xuan Yan	director	3355 LAS VEGAS BOULEVARD SOUTH, LAS VEGAS NV 89109
Lawrence A Jacobs	officer: EVP & Global General Counsel	THE NEWS CORPORATION LIMITED, 1211 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Robert G Goldstein	officer: Senior Vice President	3355 LAS VEGAS BOULEVARD SOUTH, LAS VEGAS NV 89109
George Jamieson	director	C/O LAS VEGAS SANDS CORP, 3355 LAS VEGAS BOULEVARD SOUTH, LAS VEGAS NV 89109
Lewis Kramer	director	C/O L-3 COMMUNICATIONS CORPORATION, 600 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10016
Randy Hyzak	officer: SVP, Chief Accounting Officer	C/O FREESCALE SEMICONDUCTOR, INC., 6501 WILLIAM CANNON DRIVE WEST, AUSTIN TX 78735
Patrick Dumont	officer: Principal Financial Officer	3355 LAS VEGAS BOULEVARD SOUTH, LAS VEGAS NV 89109
Stephanie Marz	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	3355 LAS VEGAS BOULEVARD SOUTH, LAS VEGAS NV 89109
George Tanasijevich	officer: Pres & CEO, Marina Bay Sands	LAS VEGAS SANDS CORP., 3355 LAS VEGAS BOULEVARD SOUTH, LAS VEGAS NV 89109
Ira H Raphaelson	officer: EVP & Global General Counsel	LAS VEGAS SANDS CORP., 3355 LAS VEGAS BOULEVARD SOUTH, LAS VEGAS NV 89109