LegalZoom.com (LegalZoom.com) Predictability Rank

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Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

LegalZoom.com Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

LegalZoom.com Predictability Rank Related Terms

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LegalZoom.com (LegalZoom.com) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » LegalZoom.com Inc (NAS:LZ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

1LZ:Germany

Address

101 North Brand Boulevard, 11th Floor, Glendale, CA, USA, 91203

Website

https://www.legalzoom.com

LegalZoom.com Inc is an online provider of services that meet the legal needs of small businesses and consumers in the United States.

Executives

Richard Preece	officer: COO and Chief Product Officer	101 NORTH BRAND BOULEVARD, 11TH FLOOR, GLENDALE CA 91203
Nicole Miller	officer: General Counsel	101 NORTH BRAND BOULEVARD, 11TH FLOOR, GLENDALE CA 91203
Lucaszoom Llc	director, 10 percent owner	LUCASZOOM LLC, 3000 SAND HILL ROAD, BUILDING 1, SUITE 1, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Dipan Patel	director, 10 percent owner	LEGALZOOM.COM, INC., 101 NORTH BRAND BOULEVARD, 11TH FLOOR, GLENDALE CA 91203
Daniel A Wernikoff	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O INTUIT INC., 2700 COAST AVENUE, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Noel Bertram Watson	officer: Chief Financial Officer	400 1ST AVENUE, C/O TRIPADVISOR, INC., NEEDHAM MA 02494
Shrisha Radhakrishna	officer: Chief Technology Officer	101 NORTH BRAND BOULEVARD, 11TH FLOOR, GLENDALE CA 91203
Neil Tolaney	director	TECHNOLOGY CROSSOVER MANAGEMENT, 250 MIDDLEFIELD ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Sivan Whiteley	director	1455 MARKET STREET, SUITE 600, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Elizabeth Hamren	director	101 NORTH BRAND BOULEVARD, 11TH FLOOR, GLENDALE CA 91203
Brian Ruder	director, 10 percent owner	LEGALZOOM.COM, INC., 101 NORTH BRAND BOULEVARD, 11TH FLOOR, GLENDALE CA 91203
Francisco Partners Management, Lp	10 percent owner	ONE LETTERMAN DRIVE, BUILDING C, SUITE 410, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
Permira V L.p.2	director, 10 percent owner	TRAFALGAR COURT, LES BANQUES, ST PETER PORT Y7 GY1 6DJ
Christine T Wang	director	ONE LETTERMAN DRIVE, BLDG C, STE 410, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
Khai Ha	director	C/O GPI CAPITAL, L.P., 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 32ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10105