Matthews International (Matthews International) Predictability Rank

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What is Matthews International Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Matthews International Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Matthews International (Matthews International) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Conglomerates » Matthews International Corp (NAS:MATW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MW1A:Germany MW1A:Germany

Address

Two Northshore Center, Pittsburgh, PA, USA, 15212-5851

Website

https://www.matw.com

Matthews International Corp is a personal services company that primarily provides brand solution services, memorialization products, and industrial products in the United States and Europe. The majority of Matthews' revenue is derived from its SGK Brand Solutions business, which provides brand development services, printing equipment, creative design services, and embossing tools to the consumer packaged goods and packaging industries. The company's Memorialization segment, which sells bronze and granite memorials, caskets, and cremation equipment to the cemetery and funeral home industries, also contributes a significant amount. Most of Matthews' revenue is generated from sales made in the U.S., while European customers also contribute a sizable percentage.

Executives

Aleta W. Richards	director	TWO NORTHSHORE CENTER, PITTSBURGH PA 15212
Joseph C Bartolacci	officer: President, York Casket Divisio
Ronald C Awenowicz	officer: SVP, Global Compliance & HR	TWO NORTHSHORE CENTER, PITTSBURGH PA 15212
Lee Lane	officer: SVP Matthews Automation Soluti	TWO NORTHSHORE CENTER, PITTSBURGH PA 15212
Reena Gurtner	officer: SVP, Global Talent & HR	241 RIVER VALLEY ROAD, GIANURN BUILDING, LEVEL 4, SINGAPORE U0 238298
Brian J Dunn	officer: President, Marking Products Di
Steven F Nicola	officer: Chief Financial Officer
David A Schawk	director, officer: President, Brand Solutions	674 SKYE LANE, BARRINGTON IL 60010
Lillian Etzkorn	director	1570 FOREST LANE, BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48301
Brady Edward M Jr	officer: Chief Information Officer	TWO NORTH SHORE CENTER, PITTSBURGH PA 15212
Tunon Alvaro Garcia	director
Davor Brkovich	officer: Chief Information Officer	252 PARKWEST DRIVE, PITTSBURGH PA 15275
Gary Raymond Kohl	officer: President SGK	52 WOODLAND AVENUE, GLEN RIDGE NJ 07028
Robert M Marsh	officer: Treasurer	108 NANTUCKET DRIVE, PITTSBURGH PA 15238
Brian D Walters	officer: V.P. and General Counsel	TWO NORTHSHORE CENTER, PITTSBURGH PA 15212