PhenixFIN (PhenixFIN) Predictability Rank

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What is PhenixFIN Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

PhenixFIN Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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PhenixFIN (PhenixFIN) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » PhenixFIN Corp (NAS:PFX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

445 Park Avenue, 10th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10022

Website

http://www.phenixfc.com

PhenixFIN Corp formerly Medley Capital Corp is a non-diversified closed end management investment company operating in United States. Its investment objective is to generate current income and capital appreciation by lending directly to privately held middle market companies to expand their business, refinance and make acquisitions. It mainly invests in senior secured first lien term loans, senior secured second lien term loans, unitranche, senior secured first lien notes, subordinated notes and warrants and minority equity securities. It may also invest in securities of foreign companies. Portfolio of the company mainly consists of securities across all sectors. Revenue generated by the company comprises of interest income, dividend and other income earned through investments made.

Executives

Ellida Mcmillan	officer: CFO & Chief Accounting Officer	C/O ALCENTRA CAPITAL CORP., 200 PARK AVE, 7TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10166
David A Lorber	director	C/O FRONTFOUR CAPITAL GROUP LLC, 35 MASON STREET, 4TH FLOOR, GREENWICH CT 06830
Howard Amster	director	23811 CHAGRIN BLVD # 200, BEACHWOOD OH 44122-5525
Arthur S Ainsberg	director	C/O ANGELO, GORDON & CO., L.P., 245 PARK AVENUE, 26TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10167
Karin Hirtler-garvey	director	112 W. 34TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10120
Lowell W Robinson	director	470 WEST END AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10024
Fortress Investment Group Llc	10 percent owner	1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 46TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10105
Drawbridge Special Opportunities Fund Lp	10 percent owner	C/O FORTRESS INVESTMENT GROUP LLC, 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 46TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10105
Fig Llc	10 percent owner	1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 46 FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10105
Fortress Operating Entity I Lp	10 percent owner	1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Fig Corp.	10 percent owner	1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Db Med Investor I Llc	10 percent owner	1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Drawbridge Special Opportunities Gp Llc	10 percent owner	1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Drawbridge Special Opportunites Fund Ltd	10 percent owner	1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Fortress Principal Investment Holdings Iv Llc	10 percent owner	1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105