5 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Microchip Technology Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Microchip Technology (Microchip Technology) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
2355 West Chandler Boulevard, Chandler, AZ, USA, 85224-6199
Microchip Technology became an independent company in 1989 when it was spun off from General Instrument. More than half of revenue comes from MCUs, which are used in a wide array of electronic devices from remote controls to garage door openers to power windows in autos. The company's strength lies in lower-end 8-bit MCUs that are suitable for a wider range of less technologically advanced devices, but the firm has expanded its presence in higher-end MCUs and analog chips as well.
Executives
| James Eric Bjornholt |
officer: VP and CFO |
MICROCHIP TECHNOLOGY INCORPORATED, 2355 WEST CHANDLER BOULEVARD, CHANDLER AZ 85224-6199 |
| Karlton D Johnson |
director |
C/O MICROCHIP TECHNOLOGY INCORPORATED, 2355 W. CHANDLER BOULEVARD, CHANDLER AZ 85224-6199 |
| Matthew W Chapman |
director |
400 SW SIXTH AVENUE, SUITE 200, PORTLAND OR 97204 |
| Robert A. Rango |
director |
5300 CALIFORNIA AVENUE, IRVINE CA 92617 |
| Richard J Simoncic |
officer: VP, Microperipheral Prod Div |
2355 W CHANDLER BLVD, CHANDLER AZ 85224-6199 |
| Mitchell R Little |
officer: VP, WW Sales and Appns. |
2355 W CHANDLER BLVD, CHANDLER AZ 85224-6199 |
| Ganesh Moorthy |
officer: VP, MCU and Auto. Div. |
MICROCHIP, 2355 W CHANDLER BLVD, CHANDLER AZ 85224-6199 |
| Steve Sanghi |
director, officer: President, CEO, Chairman |
2355 W CHANDLER BLVD, CHANDLER AZ 85224-6199 |
| Wade F Meyercord |
director |
2355 W CHANDLER BLVD, CHANDLER AZ 85224-6199 |
| Stephen V Drehobl |
officer: VP, Security, MCU & Tech Div. |
|
| L B Day |
director |
2355 W CHANDLER BLVD, CHANDLER AZ 85224-6199 |
| Karen Marie Rapp |
director |
C/O NATIONAL INSTRUMENTS CORPORATION, 11500 NORTH MOPAC, AUSTIN TX 78759 |
| Esther Johnson |
director |
8731 S 600 W, CLAYPOOL IN 46510 |
| Hugo Martinez Albert J |
director |
2355 W CHANDLER BLVD, CHANDLER AZ 85224-6199 |
| David S Lambert |
officer: VP, Fab Operations |
2355 W CHANDLER BLVD, CHANDLER AZ 85224-6199 |
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