Medifast (Medifast) Predictability Rank

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What is Medifast Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Medifast Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Medifast Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Medifast (Medifast) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Personal Services » Medifast Inc (NYSE:MED) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MED:Mexico MDF:Germany MDF:Germany

Address

100 International Drive, Baltimore, MD, USA, 21202

Website

https://www.medifastinc.com

Medifast Inc is a United states based company that produces, distributes and sells products concerning weight loss, weight management, and healthy living. The company generates its revenue from point of sale transactions executed over an e-commerce platform for weight loss, weight management, and other consumable health and nutritional products.

Executives

Jeffrey J Brown	director	19900 MACARTHUR BLVD, SUITE 570, IRVINE CA 92612
Andrea B Thomas	director	C/O MEDIFAST, INC., 100 INTERNATIONAL DRIVE, BALTIMORE MD 21202
Michael A. Hoer	director	MEDIFAST, INC., 100 INTERNATIONAL DRIVE, 18TH FLOOR, BALTIMORE MD 21202
Scott Schlackman	director	3600 CRONDALL LANE, OWINGS MILLS MD 21117
Hallquist Constance J.	director	3600 CRONDALL LANE, OWINGS MILLS MD 21117
Elizabeth A. Geary	director	C/O MEDIFAST, INC., 100 INTERNATIONAL DRIVE, BALTIMORE MD 21202
Daniel R Chard	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	NU SKIN ENTERPRISES, INC., 75 WEST CENTER STREET, PROVO UT 84601
Jonathan Barrett Mackenzie	officer: VP, Finance & CAO	100 INTERNATIONAL DRIVE, BALTIMORE MD 21202
Kevin G Byrnes	director	C/O MEDIFAST, INC., 3600 CRONDALL LANE, OWINGS MILLS MD 21117
Michael C Macdonald	director	C/O MEDIFAST, INC., 3600 CRONDALL LANE, OWINGS MILLS MD 21117
James P. Maloney	officer: Chief Financial Officer	415 HOLIDAY DRIVE, PITTSBURGH PA 15220
Ming Xian	director	MEDIFAST, INC., 100 INTERNATIONAL DRIVE, 18TH FLOOR, BALTIMORE MD 21202
Carl E Sassano	director	C/O MEDIFAST, INC., 3600 CRONDALL LANE, OWINGS MILLS MD 21117
Joseph P Kelleman	officer: (Interim) CFO	3600 CRONDALL LANE, OWINGS MILLS MD 21117
Timothy G Robinson	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O MEDIFAST, INC., 3600 CRONDALL LANE, OWINGS MILLS MD 21117