Markel Group (Markel Group) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Markel Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Markel Group (Markel Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » Markel Group Inc (NYSE:MKL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MKV:Germany MKV:Germany MKLC34:Brazil

Address

4521 Highwoods Parkway, Glen Allen, VA, USA, 23060-6148

Website

https://www.markel.com

Markel's primary business is property and casualty insurance, and the company focuses primarily on specialty lines, ranging from areas such as executive liability to commercial equine insurance. The acquisition of Alterra in 2013 added substantial reinsurance operations, which now account for a little less than 15% of premiums. The company uses capital generated by its insurance operations to buy noninsurance operations in diverse areas, such as bakery equipment manufacturing and residential homebuilding.

Executives

Lawrence A Cunningham	director	4521 HIGHWOODS PARKWAY, GLEN ALLEN VA 23060
Mark Besca	director	4521 HIGHWOODS PARKWAY, GLEN ALLEN VA 23060
A. Lynne Puckett	director	C/O 222 W LAS COLINAS BLVD, SUITE 900N, IRVING TX 75039
Thomas Sinnickson Gayner	officer: Pres. & Chief Investment Off.	C/O MARKEL CORP, 4521 HIGHWOODS PARKWAY, GLEN ALLEN VA 23060
Steven A Markel	director, officer: Vice Chairman
Greta J Harris	director	4521 HIGHWOODS PARKWAY, GLEN ALLEN VA 23060
Morgan E. Housel	director	4521 HIGHWOODS PARKWAY, GLEN ALLEN VA 23060
Teresa S Gendron	officer: Chief Financial Officer	520 MADISON AVE., C/O JEFFERIES FINANCIAL GROUP INC., NEW YORK NY 10022
Diane Leopold	director	120 TREDEGAR STREET, RICHMOND VA 23219
Anthony F Markel	director, officer: Vice Chairman	4551 COX RD, GLEN ALLEN VA 23060
Andrew G. Crowley	officer: President, Markel Ventures	4521 HIGHWOODS PARKWAY, GLEN ALLEN VA 23060
Whitt Richard R Iii	officer: President & Co-COO	C/O MARKEL CORPORATION, 4521 HIGHWOODS PARKWAY, GLEN ALLEN VA 23060
Brian J. Costanzo	officer: CAO and Controller	4521 HIGHWOODS PARKWAY, GLEN ALLEN VA 23060
Stewart M Kasen	director	5818 EL CAMINO REAL, CARLSBAD CA 92008
Susan L. Davies	officer: CHRO, Markel Insurance	MARKEL CORPORATION, 4521 HIGHWOODS PARKWAY, GLEN ALLEN VA 23060