Marathon Petroleum (Marathon Petroleum) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2011. Start your Free Trial

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Marathon Petroleum Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Marathon Petroleum Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Marathon Petroleum's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Marathon Petroleum (Marathon Petroleum) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Marathon Petroleum Corp (NYSE:MPC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MPC:Mexico MPN:Germany MPN:Germany M1PC34:Brazil MPC:Austria

Address

539 South Main Street, Findlay, OH, USA, 45840-3229

Website

https://www.marathonpetroleum.com

Marathon Petroleum is an independent refiner with 13 refineries in the midcontinent, West Coast, and Gulf Coast of the United States with total throughput capacity of 2.9 million barrels per day. Its Dickinson, North Dakota, facility produces 184 million gallons a year of renewable diesel. Its Martinez, California, facility will have the ability to produce 730 million gallons a year of renewable diesel once converted. The firm also owns and operates midstream assets primarily through its listed master limited partnership, MPLX.

Executives

Carl Kristopher Hagedorn	officer: Senior VP and Controller	C/O CONE MIDSTREAM PARTNERS LP, 1000 CONSOL ENERGY DRIVE, CANONSBURG PA 15317
Rucker Kim K.w.	director	KRAFT FOODS GROUP, INC., THREE LAKES DRIVE, NORTHFIELD IL 60093
Shawn M Lyon	officer: SVP Log & Storage, MPLX GP LLC	C/O MPLX, 200 E HARDIN STREET, FINDLAY OH 45840
Gregory Scott Floerke	officer: Ex VP & COO, MPLX GP LLC	C/O MARKWEST ENERGY PARTNERS, L.P., 1515 ARAPAHOE STREET, TOWER 1, SUITE 160, DENVER CO 80202
Timothy J Aydt	officer: Ex VP and CCO, MPLX GP LLC	C/O MPLX LP, 200 E. HARDIN STREET, FINDLAY OH 45840
Toni Townes-whitley	director	8340 SPRINGHAVEN GARDEN LANE, MCLEAN, VA X1 22102
Michael J Hennigan	officer: President & CEO, MPLX GP LLC	3807 WEST CHESTER PIKE, NEWTOWN SQUARE PA 19073
Suzanne Gagle	officer: VP and General Counsel	C/O MPC, FINDLAY OH 45840
Thomas Kaczynski	officer: VP, Finance and Treasurer	C/O MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION, FINDLAY OH 45840
Raymond L Brooks	officer: Sr. VP, Refining	C/O MPC, FINDLAY OH 45840
Charles E Bunch	director	PPG INDUSTRIES INC., ONE PPG PLACE, PITTSBURGH PA 15272
Brian C Davis	officer: Exec VP, Chief Commercial Ofc	C/O MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION, 539 S. MAIN STREET, FINDLAY OH 45840
Maryann T. Mannen	officer: Exec VP & Chief Fin Ofc	C/O MARATHON PETROLEUM CORPORATION, 539 SOUTH MAIN ST, FINDLAY OH 45840
Jonathan Z Cohen	director	1845 WALNUT STREET, 10TH FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
James E Rohr	director	249 FIFTH AVE, P1-POPP-30-1, PITTSBURGH PA 15222