What is Medical Properties Trust Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Medical Properties Trust Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Medical Properties Trust (Medical Properties Trust) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1000 Urban Center Drive, Suite 501, Birmingham, AL, USA, 35242
Medical Properties Trust Inc is a healthcare facility REIT. The company operates one segment, which owns and leases healthcare facilities. The vast majority of Medical's revenue is generated in the United States, followed by Germany and the United Kingdom. The company considers merger and acquisition investment as a component of its operational growth strategy. It provides financing for a variety of facilities that require funds for acquisitions, sale-leasebacks, new developments, and expansion projects.
Executives
| Aldag Edward K Jr |
director, officer: Chairman, President & CEO |
1000 URBAN CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 501, BIRMINGHAM AL 35242 |
| R Steven Hamner |
director, officer: Executive Vice President & CFO |
|
| Larry H Portal |
officer: SVP, Senior Advisor to the CEO |
1000 URBAN CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 501, BIRMINGHAM AL 35242 |
| Rosa Handley Hooper |
officer: SVP of Operations & Asst. Sec. |
1000 URBAN CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 501, BIRMINGHAM AL 35242 |
| James Kevin Hanna |
officer: Senior VP, Controller & CAO |
1000 URBAN CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 501, BIRMINGHAM AL 35242 |
| Michael G Stewart |
officer: Exec. VP, Gen Counsel, Sec |
1000 URBAN CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 501, BIRMINGHAM AL 35242 |
| Emily Webster Murphy |
director |
601 N FAIRFAX ST, ALEXANDRIA VA 22314 |
| Emmett E Mclean |
officer: EVP, Secretary, and COO |
1000 URBAN CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 501, BIRMINGHAM AL 35242 |
| Caterina Ardon Mozingo |
director |
PO BOX 33, MONTGOMERY AL 36101-0033 |
| G Steven Dawson |
director |
CIRA CENTRE, 2929 ARCH STREET, 17TH FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104-2870 |
| Elizabeth N Pitman |
director |
1901 SIXTH AVE NORTH, SUITE 1400, BIRMINGHAM AL 35203 |
| William G Mckenzie |
director, officer: Vice Chairman of the Board |
1000 URBAN CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 501, BIRMINGHAM AL 35242 |
| Thompson C Reynolds Iii |
director |
227 WEST TRADE STREET, SUITE 900, CHARLOTTE NC 28202 |
| Sherry A Kellett |
director |
|
| Daniel Paul Sparks |
director |
1000 URBAN CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 501, BIRMINGHAM AL 35242 |
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