M&T Bank (M&T Bank) Predictability Rank

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M&T Bank Predictability Rank Definition

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

M&T Bank Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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M&T Bank (M&T Bank) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » M&T Bank Corp (NYSE:MTB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MTBPH.PFD:USA MTB_KZ:Kazakhstan MTZ:Germany

Address

One M&T Plaza, Buffalo, NY, USA, 14203

Website

https://www.mtb.com

M&T Bank is one of the largest regional banks in the United States, with branches in New York, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey. The bank was founded to serve manufacturing and trading businesses around the Erie Canal and is primarily focused on commercial real estate and commercial-related lending, with some retail operations also present.

Executives

John P Barnes	director	C/O PEOPLE'S UNITED BANK, 850 MAIN STREET, BRIDGEPORT CT 06604
Kirk W Walters	director	C/O PEOPLE'S UNITED BANK, 850 MAIN STREET, 16TH FLOOR, BRIDGEPORT CT 06604
Gary N Geisel	director	C/O PROVIDENT BANKSHARES CORP, 114 LEXINGTON STREET, BALTIMORE MD 21202
Robert J Bojdak	officer: Executive Vice President	ONE FOUNTAIN PLAZA, BUFFALO NY 14203
Doris P. Meister	officer: Executive Vice President	1100 NORTH MARKET STREET, WILMINGTON DE 19801
Daryl N. Bible	officer: Sr. EVP & CFO	214 N TRYON STREET, CHARLOTTE NC 28202
John R. Taylor	officer: EVP & Controller	ONE M&T PLAZA, BUFFALO NY 14203
Ledgett Richard H. Jr.	director	1052 ST. STEPHENS CHURCH ROAD, CROWNSVILLE MD 21032
Carlton J. Charles	director	300 WEST 57TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Warman D Scott N	officer: Senior Vice President	ONE M&T PLAZA, BUFFALO NY 14203
Michael J. Todaro	officer: Executive Vice President	ONE M&T PLAZA, BUFFALO NY 14203
Michele D Trolli	officer: Exec. VP & Chief Info. Officer	465 MAIN STREET, 8TH FLOOR, BUFFALO NY 14203
Edna Jennifer Warren	officer: Executive Vice President	ONE M&T PLAZA, BUFFALO NY 14203
Christopher E Kay	officer: Executive Vice President	500 W MAIN STREET, LOUISVILLE KY 40202
Kevin J Pearson	officer: Executive Vice President