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Myriad Genetics (Myriad Genetics) Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Myriad Genetics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Myriad Genetics Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Myriad Genetics (Myriad Genetics) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
320 Wakara Way, Salt Lake City, UT, USA, 84108
Myriad Genetics is a molecular diagnostics company that provides testing services designed to assess an individual's risk of developing a disease. The firm produces MyRisk, a 48-gene panel with the capability to identify the elevated risk of developing 11 types of cancer. Other diagnostic products include BRACAnalysis CDx, the FDA-approved companion diagnostic for PARP inhibitors; GeneSight, which helps improve responses to psychotropic drugs for patients suffering from depression; and Prequel, a noninvasive prenatal test. Precise Oncology Solutions, launched in 2022, combines Precise Tumor with companion diagnostic and prognostic tests such as MyChoice CDx, Prolaris, and EndoPredict. The firm offers biomarker discovery and companion diagnostic services to pharma and biotech companies.
Executives
Richard Bryan Riggsbee officer: Chief Financial Officer 322 NORTH 2200 WEST, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84116
Daniel K Spiegelman director MYRIAD GENETICS, 320 WAKARA WAY, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84003
Heinrich Dreismann director 320 WAKARA WAY, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84108
Nicole Lambert officer: Chief Operating Officer 322 NORTH 2200 WEST, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84116
Margaret Ancona officer: SVP, Chief of Staff 322 NORTH 2200 WEST, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84116
Pamela Wong officer: Chief Legal Officer 322 NORTH 2200 WEST, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84116
Shereen Solaiman officer: Chief People Officer 320 WAKARA WAY, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84108
Paul Bisaro director
Dale Muzzey officer: Chief Scientific Officer 322 NORTH 2200 WEST, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84116
Kevin Richard Haas officer: Chief Technology Officer 322 NORTH 2200 WEST, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84116
Natalie Munk officer: Chief Accounting Officer 322 NORTH 2200 WEST, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84116
Lee Nisley Newcomer director 264 BUSHAWAY ROAD, WAYZATA MN 55391-1901
Rashmi Kumar director 320 WAKARA WAY, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84108
Jayne B. Hart officer: Executive VP Human Resources 320 WAKARA WAY, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84108
Jerry S Lanchbury officer: Senior V.P. - Research 320 WAKARA WAY, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84108