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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Viatris Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Viatris (Viatris) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1000 Mylan Boulevard, Canonsburg, PA, USA, 15317
Viatris was formed in November 2020 through the combination of Upjohn, a wholly owned subsidiary of Pfizer that specialized in off-patent drugs, and Mylan, a global pharmaceutical manufacturer that focused on generic and specialty drugs. By joining forces, Viatris became one of the largest generic drug manufacturers in the world, servicing over 165 countries. Generics (commoditized and complex) and biosimilars make up roughly 40% of Viatris' total sales. Remaining 60% of sales is derived from its portfolio of legacy products which includes Lipitor, Norvasc, Lyrica, and Viagra. While it covers more than 10 major therapeutic areas, Viatris has identified dermatology, ophthalmology, and gastroenterology as its three key areas of focus for future innovations.
Executives
| Andrew Cuneo |
officer: See Remarks |
1000 MYLAN BOULEVARD, CANONSBURG PA 15317 |
| Xiangyang (sean) Ni |
officer: President, Greater China |
1000 MYLAN BOULEVARD, CANONSBURG PA 15317 |
| Leo Frans Groothuis |
director |
1000 MYLAN BOULEVARD, CANONSBURG PA 15317 |
| Scott Andrew Smith |
director |
C/O CELGENE CORPORATION, 86 MORRIS AVENUE, SUMMIT NJ 07901 |
| Elisha W Finney |
director |
C/O VARIAN MEDICAL SYSTEMS, INC, 3100 HANSEN WAY M/S E-327, PALO ALTO CA 94304 |
| Van Der Meer Mohr Pauline |
director |
1000 MYLAN BOULEVARD, CANONSBURG PA 15317 |
| Menassie Taddese |
officer: See Remarks |
1000 MYLAN BOULEVARD, CANONSBURG PA 15317 |
| Robert J Coury |
director, officer: Executive Chairman |
BUILDING 4, TRIDENT PLACE, MOSQUITO WAY, HATFIELD, HERTFORDSHIRE X0 AL10 9UL |
| W Don Cornwell |
director |
|
| Brian Roman |
officer: Global General Counsel |
1000 MYLAN BOULEVARD, CANONSBURG PA 15317 |
| Anthony Mauro |
officer: See Remarks |
BUILDING 4, TRIDENT PLACE, MOSQUITO WAY, HATFIELD, HERTFORDSHIRE X0 AL10 9UL |
| James M Kilts |
director |
120 PARK AVE, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Melina E Higgins |
director |
BUILDING 4, TRIDENT PLACE, MOSQUITO WAY, HATFIELD, HERTFORDSHIRE X0 AL10 9UL |
| Ian C Read |
director |
PFIZER INC ATTN CORPORATE SECRETARY, 235 EAST 42ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Dillon Joellen Lyons |
director |
BUILDING 4, TRIDENT PLACE, MOSQUITO WAY, HATFIELD, HARTFORDSHIRE X0 AL 109UL |
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