NovaBay Pharmaceuticals (NovaBay Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

NovaBay Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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NovaBay Pharmaceuticals (NovaBay Pharmaceuticals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » NovaBay Pharmaceuticals Inc (AMEX:NBY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

B9P:Germany

Address

2000 Powell Street, Suite 1150, Emeryville, CA, USA, 94608

Website

https://www.novabay.com

NovaBay Pharmaceuticals Inc is a biopharmaceutical company that develops and sells scientifically-created and clinically-proven eyecare and skincare products. Its leading product, Avenova Antimicrobial Lid and Lash Solution (Avenova Spray), is proven in laboratory testing to have broad antimicrobial properties as it removes foreign material including microorganisms and debris from the skin around the eye, including the eyelid. Avenova Spray is available direct to consumers through online distribution channels and is also often prescribed and dispensed by eyecare professionals for blepharitis and dry-eye disease.

Executives

Tommy Law	officer: Interim CFO	2000 POWELL STREET, SUITE 1150, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Jeffrey Kunin	officer: President, DERMAdoctor, LLC	4346 BELGIUM BLVD NW, RIVERSIDE MO 64150
Audrey Kunin	officer: Chief Product Officer	4346 BELGIUM BLVD NW, RIVERSIDE MO 64150
Justin Hall	officer: General Counsel	5980 HORTON STREET, SUITE 550, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Yongxiang Zheng	director	NO.10, UNIT 1, LIJING VILLA, TIANZHU, SHUNYI DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 101316
Julie Garlikov	director	2420 17TH STREET, SUITE 220, DENVER CO 80202
Andrew D. Jones	officer: CFO and Treasurer	2000 POWELL STREET, SUITE 1150, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Mijia Wu	director	SUITE 6C, BLDG 3, YOU YOU CENTURY PLAZA, NO 428 YANG GAO SOUTH ROAD, SHANGHAI F4 CHINA
Jian Ping Fu	10 percent owner	LEVEL 1, BLDG 1, GREENWOOD BUSINESS PARK, 301 BURWOOD HWY, BURWOOD C3 3125
Wang Xu	officer: NEO - Sr Mgr and Controller	2000 POWELL STREET, SUITE 1150, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Swan Sit	director	95 JACKSON STREET, NEWTON MA 02459
Yenyou Zheng	director	1055 WEST HASTINGS STREET, SUITE 1980, VANCOUVER A1 V6E 2E9
Xiaopei Wang	director	2/44 FRANKLIN ROAD, DONCASTER EAST C3 3109
Jason Philip Raleigh	officer: Interim CFO and Treasurer	2000 POWELL STREET, SUITE 1150, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Pioneer Pharma (hong Kong) Co Ltd	10 percent owner	FLAT 2605, 26/F TRENDY CENTRE, 682 CASTLE PEAK ROAD, KOWLOON K3 000000