NCR Voyix (NCR Voyix) Predictability Rank

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What is NCR Voyix Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

NCR Voyix Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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NCR Voyix (NCR Voyix) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » NCR Voyix Corp (NYSE:VYX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

NCRRP.PFD:USA NCR1:Germany

Address

864 Spring Street NW, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30308

Website

NCR Voyix Corp

NCR Voyix Corp is a company providing services of digital commerce solutions for retail, restaurant and digital banking. NCR Voyix transforms retail, restaurant and digital banking experiences with comprehensive platform-based SaaS and service capabilities.

Executives

Kevin Michael Reddy	director	3 MINETTA STREET, NEW YORK NY 10012
James G Kelly	director
Janet Brutschea Haugen	director	UNISYS CORPORATION, 801 LAKEVIEW DRIVE, SUITE 100, BLUE BELL PA 19422
Laura Marie Miller	director	320 QUIET WATER LANE, ATLANTA GA 30350
Brian J. Webb-walsh	officer: EVP & CFO	233 MT. AIRY ROAD, SUITE 100, BASKING RIDGE NJ 07920
Kelli Sterrett	officer: EVP, General Counsel & Secrtry	10 GLENLAKE PARKWAY SOUTH TOWER, SUITE 950, ATLANTA GA 30328
Kelly Moyer	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	864 SPRING STREET, ATLANTA GA 30308
Eric Schoch	officer: EVP & President, Retail	864 SPRING STREET, ATLANTA GA 30208
David O. Wilkinson	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	864 SPRING STREET, ATLANTA GA 30308
Glenn W. Welling	director	610 NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 950, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Joseph E Reece	director	ONE VALERO WAY, BUILDING D, SUITE 200, SAN ANTONIO TX 78249
Adrian Button	officer: SVP Global Hardware Prod Ops	864 SPRING ST. NW, NCR CORPORATION, ATLANTA GA 30308-1007
Laura Sen	director	ONE MERCER ROAD, P.O. BOX 9601, NATICK MA 01760-9601
Layden Donald W Jr	officer: EVP Pymt Grp & Hd Strgy & M&A	C/O NCR CORPORATION, 864 SPRING STREET NW, ATLANTA GA 30308
Daniel William Campbell	officer: Executive VP, Global Sales	864 SPRING STREET NW, ATLANTA GA 30308