Neptune Wellness Solutions (Neptune Wellness Solutions) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Neptune Wellness Solutions Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Neptune Wellness Solutions (Neptune Wellness Solutions) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Neptune Wellness Solutions Inc (OTCPK:NEPTF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

NTU:Germany NTU:Germany

Address

545 Promenade du Centropolis, Suite 100, Laval, QC, CAN, H7T 0A3

Website

https://www.neptunecorp.com

Neptune Wellness Solutions Inc is a consumer-packaged goods company that aims to innovate health and wellness products. It focuses on developing a portfolio of high-quality, affordable consumer products that align with the latest market trends for natural, sustainable, plant-based and purpose-driven lifestyle brands. The company's products are available in more than 27,000 retail locations and include well-known organic food and beverage brands such as Sprout Organics, Nosh, and Nurturme, as well as nutraceuticals brands like Biodroga and Forest Remedies. With its efficient and adaptable manufacturing and supply chain infrastructure, the company can quickly respond to consumer demand, and introduce new products through retail partners and e-commerce channels.

Executives

Neptune Securities Settlement Fund	10 percent owner	C/O POMERANTZ LLP, 10 S. LASALLE ST., SUITE 3505, CHICAGO IL 60603
Raymond Silcock	officer: Chief Financial Officer	399 JEFFERSON ROAD, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Philip H Sanford	director	C/O CHATTEM INC, 1715 WEST 38TH STREET, CHATTANOOGA TN 37409
John Wirt	officer: See Remarks	100-545 PROMENADE DU CENTROPOLIS, LAVAL A8 H7T0A3
Michael Cammarata	director, officer: See Remarks	100-545 PROMENADE DU CENTROPOLIS, LAVAL A8 H7T0A3
Randy Weaver	officer: Chief Financial Officer	100-545 PROMENADE DU CENTROPOLIS, LAVAL A8 H7T0A3
Jessica Adkins	officer: See Remarks	100-545 PROMENADE DU CENTROPOLIS, LAVAL A8 H7T0A3
Cecil Demorris Brown	officer: See Remarks	100-545 PROMENADE DU CENTROPOLIS, LAVAL A8 H7T0A3
Joseph Buaron	director	100-545 PROMENADE DU CENTROPOLIS, LAVAL A8 H7T0A3
Julie Phillips	director	100-545 PROMENADE DU CENTROPOLIS, LAVAL A8 H7T0A3
Ronald Denis	director	100-545 PROMENADE DU CENTROPOLIS, LAVAL A8 H7T0A3
Emily Fletty	officer: See Remarks	100-545 PROMENADE DU CENTROPOLIS, LAVAL A8 H7T0A3
Geus Michael De	director	100-545 PROMENADE DU CENTROPOLIS, LAVAL A8 H7T0A3
Blumont Capital Corp	10 percent owner	70 UNIVERSITY AVENUE, SUITE 1200, TORONTO A6 M5J 2M4